Where did you get THAT number?
Extrapolation from the number of known serious cases - the only reliable-ish stat we have.
That would be up to 3.3 million. I think exposures are much lower than that *today* but in a few days that won’t be true.
If you have a better methodology, feel free to provide a better number. I built a lot of slop into my estimate on purpose so I wouldn’t have to quibble about whether it’s half a million or 3 million. And math is hard for FluBros, y’know?
If you assume that *all* the reported cases are serious/critical (not true, many are not) and that it follows the distribution we have seen in other countries with well-tested populations, then the 80k+ cases we had as of this morning implies that there are 3.2 million infected people. I am willing to call the difference between presymptomatic-serious/critical cases and mild/asymptomatic-confirmed cases a wash, since in an exponential growth situation the smaller percentage of serious/critical cases comes from a much bigger slice than the mild/asymptomatic cases.
If you really care.
Please, though, if you have a legitimate gripe with my approach given the limited data we have and the generous (to the FluBros) assumptions I have made, by all means. I need the real numbers more than I need to be right.