Correct. And currently that growth is exponential.
So we can say that current methods to ‘slow the growth’ have been completely ineffective.
When the growth starts to slow and can best be modeled by a powerlaw model, then either population constraints have come into play or the efforts to slow the growth are starting to work.
Again, I do not have enough data to compare the current growth to the worst case scenario predictions. However, I’ll say that my back of the envelope calculations show that the growth is right around where I would expect it to be, assuming an R naught value of 2.5 and a one week period when any particular person is contagious. After that week, they would be symptomatic and presumably quarantined so as not to infect others.
“So we can say that current methods to ‘slow the growth’ have been completely ineffective.”
No. We can say they have not been completely effective.
Blame NYC, Cuomo and de Blasio for that.
Now the entire Eastern Seaboard is contaminated and the largely effective containment and mitigation efforts are ruined.