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To: calenel
It’s still too early for anywhere but China and they aren’t sharing. Diamond Princess and South Korea offer some insight.

I disagree, but I'm open to consider your reasons for thinking it's too early to use these numbers for anywhere but China.

638 posted on 03/26/2020 6:41:50 AM PDT by scouter (As for me and my household... We will serve the LORD.)
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To: scouter

The statistical universes are too small, or the proportion of resolved cases is too small. CCP-19 kills the weak fast and then picks off a steady stream as the cases resolve.

China has the end data from Wuhan, or could if they have been brave enough to open all those apartment buildings they welded closed.

DP is close to done but there is still space for the thing to go to as much as 16% or stay at 1.4%. Probably gonna get close to 2% based on current trends.

Korea still has more than half its cases outstanding.

Each of the above has either completely or significantly contained its outbreak.

Nobody else has enough cases, honest reporting or anything approaching containment to be a valid source. In some cases, all three are lacking. Maybe Singapore, but even they still have community spread. And cases take so long to resolve on average.

Anyway, that’s my view


778 posted on 03/26/2020 11:27:02 AM PDT by calenel (Don't panic. Prepare and be vigilant. Join the war effort. On the human side.)
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