China, Italy, the USA, Spain, Germany, and Iran all have sufficient numbers of deaths and recovered patients to make a meaningful comparison of deaths to recovered patients (i.e., closed cases).
The numbers below represent the percentage of CLOSED CASES (i.e., cases where the patient has either died or recovered) in those 4 countries:
China - 3,287 / (3,287 + 74,051) = 4.3% (but how reliable is that? Well, we know it's at least as bad as that, since the Chinese would not make the situation look worse than it really is.)
Italy - 7,502 / 7,503 + 9,362) = 44.5%
USA - 1,031 / (1,031 + 593) = 63.5%
Spain - 3,647 / (3,647 + 5,367) = 40.5%
Germany - 206 / (206 + 3,547) = 5.5%
Iran - 2,077 / (2,077 + 9,625) = 17.7%
Now, of course, one of the objections that will be raised is that this includes only diagnosed cases, and ignores people who recovered from COVID-19, but were never officially diagnosed. That is, of course a valid criticism of this statistic.
So let's assume that in each country, the number of recovered cases is actually 10 times higher than reported. The numbers then become:
China - 3,287 / (3,287 + 740,510) = 0.4%
Italy - 7,502 / 7,503 + 93,620) = 7.4%
USA - 1,031 / (1,031 + 5,930) = 14.8%
Spain - 3,647 / (3,647 + 53,670) = 6.4%
Germany - 206 / (206 + 35,470) = 0.6%
Iran - 2,077 / (2,077 + 96,250) = 2.1%
So even if we assume that 10 times as many people have recovered than is reported, 14.8% of the closed cases in the United States have ended in death, 7.4% in Italy, 6.4% in Spain, and 2.1% in Iran.
That, folks, is one reason among many why this is not "just like the flu."
Today’s rate of increase: 24.6%. This is the second straight day where it has been lower than projected.
Average Daily rate of increase in confirmed cases since 2/28: 30.9%
Weekly rate of increase in confirmed cases: 659.9%
Days to doubling of confirmed cases: 2.6
Number of confirmed cases by 11:59 pm tomorrow, 3/26/20: 90,395
Date to pass China in officially confirmed cases: 3/26/20 (Really only symbolic, because, of course, China’s numbers are bogus, but it does serve as a kind of benchmark, given that we know it’s at least as bad as they’ve admitted.)
Date to reach 100,000 cases: 3/27/20
Date to reach 1,000,000 cases: 4/4/20
Numbers are based on the reported confirmed cases by Johns Hopkins and Worldometers.
It’s still too early for anywhere but China and they aren’t sharing. Diamond Princess and South Korea offer some insight. This bug just doesn’t let go. Cases linger for a long time and then some die anyway.