The single point almost everyone is missing: the Infected rate is going to eventually be 100%. This is a novel virus. Not one person in the world has a natural immunity to this. No body, on earth, has faced this before this pandemic.
All of these predictions are based on estimates and guesses. Sometime, in the coming months, if you interact with another human, you will be exposed.
Predicting the reaction based on anything but this is, no offense to the data folks, pissing in the sea.
By looking at the numbers, I better understand the measures, some extreme, that our state/federal governments are putting in place. I'm certain the government's numbers are far more accurate than mine.
What I hope to get across by posting them, is how serious this is. And how, from simply self isolating themselves, instead of going out to "lick the toilet bowl", they may save not only their life, but also help slow an ever increasing flow of sick to the ERs.
Because I don't care who you are, when you get to a point where you can't breathe, you're going to be dialing 911.
May God watch over your wife and you. Hope you get her home soon!
It still needs to be a slow burn, as a bridge to a cure or vaccine, so as to prevent collapsing the health care system in the meantime. As Black Agnes said, the resulting derivatives collapse (due to all the idiots investing in them) could make the Great Depression look like a cakewalk. Imagine $2T stimulus bills as far as the eye can see . . .
This is NORMAL for a virgin field epidemic which is airborne transmissible. Those NEVER hit in only one big wave and then vanish. There are always multiple waves of infection in any airborne-transmissible epidemic.
Even then virgin field airborne-transmissible epidemics never reach everyone or anything close to everyone. I'm not aware of even a majority of a given large population, outside the confines of a besieged city, ever coming down with any disease ever.
The Spanish Flu is instructive. 500 million of the 1400 million people in the world caught it (35.7%) over a period of about a year, in three big waves. About a third of all Americans did. IMO the Wuhan Virus seems to be at least as contagious as the Spanish Flu, and perhaps a bit more so. I'd put it at about 35% +/- 5% for the moment.
Reality is like that.
"The single point almost everyone is missing: the Infected rate is going to eventually be 100%. This is a novel virus. Not one person in the world has a natural immunity to this. No body, on earth, has faced this before this pandemic."
Correct. Everyone will get exposed eventually. The goal should be to solve for the minimum possible deaths. For you currency hogs a death represents a loss of economic activity. A slowing of velocity if you will. The best way to limit loss of life is to buy time. In a personal sense, it gives me time to shed excess weight and get my immune system in peak shape before exposure. In fact I might even want to choose the point in time of my infection. Buying time means we can possible manage the number of maximum hospitalization requirements. It also gives us time to get more N95, Goggles, Gloves and Face Shields not to mention more N98 and N99 masks. And time of course allows the development of more drugs and vaccines.