Oh, and I won’t call you names.
OK. I went through this days ago but I can do it again. We have several groups of people providing us with data but which groups give us the best data? We know the “asymptomatic” give us the worst quality data and I think you listed the reasons. The “mild” may be a little better because people who are ill don’t have to be chased down. The seriously ill is better because we have their bodies in the hospital. But the “Dead” is our best source of data. Sure there is such a thing as “False Positive Dead” but that doesn’t mean what you might at first think.
So, we can agree (I hope) that the dead give us the best numbers. But there are “lots of dead”. Total dead, dead ratios, etc. but the best dead is #new deaths. Now we have to decide what do we do with the #? The way epidemiologists do this is quite different from how “Finance guys” might do so and for the following reason. Medically we want the information to provide us with just three things. We know from history that viruses are predictable. Especially new viruses that spread in a “virgin” population. In fact fewer things in life are more predictable.