That is not a true statement. Yes, the 2M+ statistic is correct. It is from the Imperial College of London study. But that is not an optimistic estimate. That is the estimate in the absence of ANY lockdown, mitigation or amelioration of the spread. So it is in fact a worst case scenario. Again, to repeat - that number 2M+ is the worst case scenario if we did nothing. We are not doing nothing. We are doing a lot, for 3+ weeks.
Yes, the ICL study did say 2M+ is worst case.
There are other studies (eg: Lipstich from Harvard) that project 40-70% infection. And the WHO that predicts 66% worldwide infection.
From there, it’s simple math. Add Fauci’s 15-20, “20-something” hospitalization estimate. And 5% ICU estimate.
NY is already seeing 20+% hospitalizations and their ICUs are quickly becoming overloaded. And Cuomo said this AM that they expect to hit peak (yet) in 14-21 days.
There are other estimate in line with Harvard’s, including Angela Merkel telling her Parliament that she expects 80+% of ALL Germans to be infected.
The numbers are mostly consistent across all major estimates. But if someone has different estimates, by all means - please share them.