Posted on 03/24/2020 2:19:32 PM PDT by real saxophonist
Wow. What are the projections for China? They have four times as many people, so are they going to lose 8.8 million?
What a shallow putz.
****Ya know, I asked NICELY that you guys drop the personal attacks.
Going forward, I’m going to report every single one of them to Jim R.
No more nice asks.****
My policy is to respond to the framework of the poster I engage with. I will never bother the people of this forum with personas crap.
enter a giant:
17 Mar: StatNews: A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
By John P.A. Ioannidis
At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected...
How long, though, should measures like these (lockdowns) be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?...
The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable...
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future...
Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%...
A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat...
If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.”...
In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns...
One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.
In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic...
Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.
If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
If we have two million deaths from this in this country I’ll eat my hat, record it, and post the video here for all to see. Of course I’ll have to buy a hat first.
Lipsitch freaks. speaks to Ioannidis and pens a response for StatNews the next day. admits Ioannidis is correct - there is no reliable data:
18 Mar: StatNews: We know enough now to act decisively against Covid-19. Social distancing is a good place to start
By Marc Lipsitch
(Marc Lipsitch, D.Phil., is professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and director of Harvard’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics)
In a recent and controversial First Opinion, epidemiologist and statistician John Ioannidis argues that we lack good data on many aspects of the Covid-19 epidemic, and seems to suggest that we should not take drastic actions to curtail the spread of the virus until the data are more certain...
He is absolutely right on the first point...
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/
hacks at CBC try to give more weight to Lipsitch and others; clearly Ioannidis is rattling them:
19 Mar: CBC: Prominent scientist dares to ask: Has the COVID-19 response gone too far?
Leading epidemiologists publish duelling commentaries, igniting debate on social media
by Kelly Crowe
It’s a clash of titans — an epic battle between two famous scientists over the world’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In one corner, influential Stanford University epidemiologist John Ioannidis, who wrote a commentary asking whether taking such drastic action to combat the pandemic without evidence it will work is a “fiasco in the making.”
Across the mat, prominent Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch punched back with a defiant response titled: “We know enough now to act decisively against COVID-19.”...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-pandemic-response-scientists-1.5502423
Actually, he's not ignoring him. Fauci was interviewed by the Great One and Fauci basically said that if you don't have an immune deficiency, and you aren't old, the deadliness of the virus is next to nil. So if the folks with immune issues and the elderly self hibernate, we can let the rest of the healthy/younger folks go back to work so the economy doesn't get irreversibly crippled for the next 10-20 years.
What a great great president... Thank you!
“You CANNOT prioritize the economy over American lives - PERIOD.”
Of COURSE you can! Remember the 15 mph speed limit and how it saved 40,000 lives a year? Of course not. NO ONE wants a 15 mph speed limit nationwide even though it would save lives!
Go vote for Brain-Dead Joe!
Fauci didn’t do crap in 2009 during and after the H1N1 pandemic.
I know that’s what Fauci’s been saying for quite some time, but the data doesn’t seem to bear that out.
For example - The Netherlands ICUs are more than half filled with people under 50, many without pre-existing conditions.
Italy’s ICUs are 64% filled with people under 70.
The US hospitalization data also skews heavily to people generally in their 40s. Surprisingly, the over 60 and especially over 70 hospitalizations are LESS than the 40 YO in the last data I saw.
Then, there’s tons of anecdotal evidence..like the recentlyt dead 34 year old from California. They categorized him as having “pre-existing conditions” because he had Asthma as a child, but did not have it since age eight. That’s the game that’s apparently being played, FWIW..
Read some more of your posts. You cannot be real. Who hijacked jstolzen’s account and is posting?
I wonder if the drama queen drives a car? Follow his logic and the president would have to close the interstates.
Ya know, I asked NICELY that you guys drop the personal attacks.
Going forward, I’m going to report every single one of them to Jim R.
No more nice asks.
*********************************
Mister NOVEAU NEVER TRUMPER, while you’re at it be sure to tell Jim that you and your wife are adamant about NOT voting for Trump this November.
Excuse me, but what personal attack. Of course you are done arguing. You presented your weak case and do not want to face any counter arguments. So be it.
What a freakin’ baby you are. Geez I cannot believe the utter fear and panic by so many here. GROW UP!
I don’t personally know anyone who has the virus. I personally know a TON of people who are being affected by the shutdown. Will very, very soon be completely out of money to feed their families. Will take them ages to dig out of this financial hole.
I have a mother in the very highest risk category, but I want these shutdowns to stop. She can shelter in place. She can socially isolate. But the rest of the country CAN NOT survive much longer without money. I know people who are starting to battle anxiety and depression. Not knowing when they’ll be able to work again is crippling.
The president is correct - the cure is going to be MUCH worse than the disease was if it doesn’t stop SOON.
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