The rate of case Growth may be slowing dramatically.
Posted on 03/24/2020 10:27:45 AM PDT by dalight
Coronavirus Cases: 49,594 Deaths: 622
The rate of case Growth may be slowing dramatically.
(Excerpt) Read more at worldometers.info ...
NYC. The “Perfect Storm”.
New York City will be particularly hard-hit because of the very high density of residential dwellers in Manhattan, Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens with their numerous closely packed housing and large apartment complexes.
There is a HUGE population of Chinese workers in/around Milan, the clothing industry center.
The population is so large, there are direct flights to Wuhan, China...yes, THAT Wuhan.
Most went home (China) for Chinese New Year and returned.
The WuFlu promptly began in Italy.
Agreed. Tracking the serious case recoveries is a more useful measure in tracking progress against the disease, in my layman's opinion.
You have intuited what generations of smart people had to discover.
Holy Cow! Thank you, thank you, thank you.
This is not to say that there aren't new cases and these new cases won't cause new cases, but there was a dramatic shift in many areas to adjust and heightened anti-viral practices in many states starting on March 13th or so. That's 10 days ago. However the impact of these changes influence the cohort after the current one who have access to immediate family members and their own tighter social circles.. so the secondaries continue for another two rounds at least 15 - 22 days.
New York is special because folks just didn't take this seriously and because of the massive connections to other countries through New York's diverse population and connections to international trade. Just like Congress members.. there are people who do "meeting people" and this is a big deal in New York.
None of the death numbers can be compared to China; they did not report accurately, and probably had a lot more dead people than they reported, and they probably were dying a lot earlier than reported.
Except, I am seeing that if you die in a car accident and test positive, it is chalked up as a Corona death. Still.. not good.
When looking at these charts do remember, for what reasons I can’t explain, these are essentially “log plots” which is why these curves don’t match the curve above.
And your point is?
Our numbers are also skewed because a good number of our initial 100 cases were imported, while we completely missed probably the first 1000 cases in New york and Washington, and probably California.
If you look at these new charts, it doesn’t look like China “fudged” terribly. They probably realized intelligent people would pick that up in an instant. Aren’t charts wonderful?
the interesting thing is the death rate. Now down to 1% and this could be as low as 0.5 percent if the number of asymptomatic people is as many as folks are speculating. We are getting into regular flu territory. And, if so, WHY ARE WE COMMITTING ECONOMIC SUICIDE and bowing to Nancy Pelosi???
Which one? I have made several.
Note, now that Andrew Cuomo has said this, maybe the democrats will stop standing in the way:
“Probably “hundreds of thousands of people” have already had Covid-19, didn’t know they had it, and recovered. Should be tested for antibodies so they could go back to work and keep the economy going”
This is part of the key for recovery; getting and using an antibody test. So we know who can go back to work, and we know who we can get plasma from.
This is not very encouraging.
No, I have informed myself with countless opinions of smart people, and in doing so I occasionally find insight. ;-P
The better than/worse than the flu argument will be settled sometime in the future, once the epidemic is over and the epidemiologists have dissected the data. Until then, we need information to both learn how best to combat the disease, and to (hopefully) buoy the public with information showing the sacrifices being made are making a difference.
You and I have, over the last several days, about how to provide measures of progress. I appreciate your arguing your position based on evidence and opinion without resorting to ad hominem attacks, and I hope I have achieved the same.
Let’s hope the Recovery Phase can start next week. These charts are great news even if they don’t look like it.
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