The Imperial College modeling has been rebutted by the world’s foremost risk analysts.
“Since lockdowns result in exponentially decreasing numbers of cases, a comparatively short amount of time can be sufficient to achieve pathogen extinction, after which relaxing restrictions can be done without resurgence”
However, they also note that to eliminate this fat tail type event will require door to door monitoring, almost perfect contact tracing from those infected, isolation and extensive testing.
We are not doing those things (China and esp. Singapore, Taiwan, etc. did)
Taleb is the author of “The Black Swan”. The Netherlands is still going with mitigation as opposed to suppression. Britain is backing off, halfway it seems from mitigation.
In a (not so funny way) so are we in WV but not by design but ignorance. Very few restrictions, kids and others are out everywhere, the last state to start testing, doing fewer test than almost all others, and No 1 in vulnerable at risk populations, very high numbers of elderly, no 1 in drug ODs, obesity, black lung, etc. the number of obese children and teens with asthma, and other comorbidities off the charts.
Bad:
I neither agree nor disagree with the Imperial College model.
The reason I am discussing it here is that I believe world leaders are following it.
The future will tell us if they are indeed following it, and whether it is a good or poor strategy.
Models like this are very complex, and even the best plans can turn into disaster in the real world.
Well your reality is not the reality in most other states. Definitely not here in Maryland.
(My paraphrase) The report clearly states that the only way to know if it’s working is by seeing what’ happens after there’s a relaxation on the quarantine.
The only way this will work is by testing.