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To: calenel

We only have to get to 1 or below to see this thing recede. Current
Estimated R is 2.4. At best, according to this study, every 1 degree Celsius increase knocks r factor down by ..0383. As such, if this is right, we would need temperature to increase by 36 degrees Celsius to take it to around 1. That’s the equivalent of approximately going between 32 degrees Fahrenheit to 96 - not unreasonable in places like New York. Couple this with social distancing and other normal prevention measures, which are also taking the r factor down, and it looks like we could have a shot all around the nation of getting to 1 if this study is right. Not great, but it’s a hopeful possibility that is not unreasonable.


298 posted on 03/18/2020 2:01:06 PM PDT by Nicojones
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To: Nicojones

Every little bit will help, but even in some always hot and humid places this thing is still spreading.

R0 of 1 is just equilibrium, though. Won’t matter if the number of infected is already high as hospital stays are longer than the incubation period.

Our best weapon is still containment.


359 posted on 03/18/2020 2:51:00 PM PDT by calenel (Don't panic. Prepare and be vigilant.)
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