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I did some back of the envelope math the other night.

The ICU Patient days will likely exceed 1.4 million.

There are about 18,600 free days across the country. (Assumes we are 80% occupied—which is unrealistically low.)

If it breaks...the hospitals won’t make it three or four days. Urban areas will be the worst.

Get thee to the countryside.

“If it breaks...the hospitals won’t make it three or four days. Urban areas will be the worst.”

They are going to have to stop people from coming to the hospitals, or have excess spill over areas near the emergency rooms that can handle them.

You can’t have hundreds of people showing up frantic with their family members in critical condition trying to get in an emergency room with no where to go.

Assume 1/3 of America contracts CoVid-19, half of whom have little or no symptoms. 1/3 of 330 million people = 110 million. Half have symptoms = 55 million. 20% of those need hospitalization = 11 million. 1/3 of those require intensive care = 3.67 million. The average hospital stay for CoVid-19 is allegedly 20 days.

20 days x 11 million = 220 million hospital days required, say spread out over the next nine months. 220/9 = 24.4 million hospital days needed per month. We have about 1 million hospital beds in the country, of which 2/3 are normally filled by non-Covid-19 victims. 30 days per month x 1 million hospital beds = 30 million beds nominally available, but only 1/3 really are = 10 million hospital bed days really available. Against a fresh demand of 24.4 million bed days per month.

We have only about a third or half of the hospital beds we’d need if the CoVid-19 demand of those remains steady over the nine months, but the Imperial College of London study shows we instead face two huge spikes in demand, the first in June-July and the second in September October. Those months will be horrid.

Worse, we have only 95,000 intensive care hospital beds, and about 75,000 medical ventilators, against demand for 3.67 million CoVid-19 intensive care beds, most to almost all of whom will require ventilators for some or most of their stay in ICU’s. Assume half of their average 20 days hospitalization is in ICU’s. 10 days x 3.67 million = 36.7 million ICU bed days. But 95,000 ICU beds x 270 = 25.65 maximum available ICU bed days over the nine months. And most of the 25.65 million ICU bed days demand will take place in only 4 months – June-July and September-October.

The Imperial College London study prediction of 1.1 million American dead by the end of this year is very credible. It could easily be 2.2 million dead given that most of the demand for ICU beds will occur during the four months of massive spikes in demand.

"I did some back of the envelope math the other night ..."