“The shutdowns are doomed to fail because eventually people need income (if there are any jobs left) and kids have to go to school.”
I think the goal is not to stop infections, which is impossible as the virus is very contagious. The goal is to manage the total infection count that we have to deal with at any one time. It’s a process that gets easier as we go along.
The UK says that to achieve herd immunity we need 60% of the population to have acquired and resolved the virus. At that point, the virus will still be around, but you won’t have large hotspots and clusters that strain the system.
That’s exactly my understanding, too. I’ve see herd immunity estimates from 60% to 80% of the population.
And the crucial stage is the ventilator stage. They want to have enough health care to treat those very serious cases. Or as close to enough as they can.