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To: Jim W N
....."COVID19 is a type of SARS"....

Once you realize that then it's understandable why the research people had their concerns at the start.

3 posted on 03/15/2020 11:38:11 AM PDT by caww
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To: caww

If COVI 19 is a SARS issue, then the same type of logic is in play as is discussed here.

“FORECASTING CASES & DURATION OF
SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME (SARS)

“Can simple mathematical models give an insight into the question of how many people will be infected by SARS and how well it is being controlled ?

In late 2002, a severe form of pneumonia called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) broke out in Southern China. It was met by a government determined to deny its existence. Shortly after the Chinese New Year 1st February 2003, SARS spread across the world.

“By mid April, over 1200 people in Hong Kong had been infected, including many health workers, and its 6 million people were in a state of virtual panic.

“S-shaped Logistic equations have been shown to accurately model the February 2001 outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in the UK. What can they tell us about the 2003 SARS outbreak ? With hindsight, the outbreaks in Singapore and Canada were brought under control by early May, but logistic curve-fits made that apparent even from early April.

The results show here that while in the initial stages of an outbreak, the disease seems to spread exponentially, this situation can not be maintained and the outbreak tapers off logistically. While there is a need to respond agressively against the disease, even in April 2003 there was no need to panic - the sky was not falling in.”

Key point here - act quickly and aggressively but don’t panic and don’t overkill.


5 posted on 03/15/2020 11:49:05 AM PDT by Jim W N (MAGA by restoring the Gospel of the Grace of Christ and our Free Constitutional Republic!)
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