Chris Hayes
@chrislhayes
Having spent the day on the phone talking to local experts of various stripes, there are *many* very serious, knowledgeable people who fear this analysis is correct; NYC is headed for a Wuhan or Lombardy-style healthcare system crash.
OVID-19: New York Will Be The Next Italy, But Doesnt Have to Be
From your link....regarding NY becoming next Italy...
...The Status Quo: The governor and the mayor continue to allow the virus to spread at schools, subways, restaurants, cafes, and workplaces. This is the exact same approach Italy took at the beginning of its outbreak. Seriously take a look at this article from two and a half weeks ago when Italy only had 160 cases (vs NYCs 500+).
....Strict emergency measures were put in place over the weekend, including a ban on public events in at least 10 municipalities, after a spike in confirmed cases in the northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto.
Italys Health Minister Roberto Speranza announced severe restrictions in the affected regions, which included the closure of public buildings, limited transport, and the surveillance and quarantine of individuals who may have been exposed to the virus.
We are asking basically that everyone who has come from areas stricken by the epidemic to remain under a mandatory house stay, Speranza said at a Saturday press conference. CNN, Feb 24 2020 ....
....Sound familiar? Its the exact same thing New York is trying now. It wont work here either.
After that fails here too, we will wind up with the Italian situation. Overflowing hospitals. Demand at two, three, five times the capacity of the hospitals ability to deliver care. Whats worse is that their capacity will decline as cases overflow. Their doctors and nurses will be exposed and have to be quarantined, reducing an already strained workforce. Soon after, chaos in the hospitals will lead to fear in the whole city. You will see reports of people dying in their apartments because there isnt capacity for them in hospitals. This fear alone will shut down the city. The economy will be ruined and tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of New Yorkers will die this year. This could all start at the beginning of April, if we dont act within the next 510 days.
The Better Alternative: Shut down the city this week. Close everything but grocery stores, banks, and pharmacies. Convert schools into food distribution centers. Bring in the National Guard to provide essential services like food and augment police and emergency services. Issue checks to all New Yorkers for the length of the quarantine for at least $500 per person per month. Limit travel outside of the region. Slow the growth of the virus to a crawl immediately.
We know quarantines work. It did in Italy and Wuhan. It looks like France and Spain are convinced it will work too. The economy will be wrecked, but depending on when you do it, you might keep deaths in NYC under 5,000.
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Quite alarming. We will see what NY does, in the coming days.
Prayers up.