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I am not sure you understand.

Here are the numbers.

Let us say you have 100 employees who are critical.

We know from international statistics that 60 of them can be infected (even with full spread in the facility).

Of those 60 only 9 will be sick enough to require hospitalization and have to be moved from the premises.

Of them 1 or 2 will die.

Those are the numbers.

The plant can suck it up with 91 people working—especially since a few more folks can be brought in if needed.

No there there.

cgbg, you overlook age-related and co-morbidity issues. People are more likely to contract diseases, and more likely to develop serious cases of them, as they age and come down with other medical problems. This is normal for most any disease, but seems to be much magnified for CoVid-19.

Dark Wing pointed out that nuclear power plant operators who acquired their skills tend to be ex-career military, i.e., retired after 20 years of service. That puts them in the 40+ year-old age cohort, and excludes the low-risk 20-39 year-old age cohorts.

So nuclear power plant control room staff are almost all in the higher-risk age cohorts. That completely skews your statistics.

Regards this:

>>Let us say you have 100 employees who are critical.
>>
>>We know from international statistics that 60 of them can >>be infected (even with full spread in the facility).
>>
>>Of those 60 only 9 will be sick enough to require >>hospitalization and have to be moved from the premises.
>>
>>Of them 1 or 2 will die.

If 30 of those 60 get into a 14-day quarantine for a COVID-19 exposure. They are lost for continuity of operations for that period.

Some of the 30 exposed will get it and be lost for a month. Call it 10 people. About 5% will die and be lost forever. Call it one person for round numbers and older demographics sake.

Some number of the exposed and quarantined, 20 in this example, will come back to work and pop sick some time after the 14 day quarantine because we need a 30 day quarantine to cover the tail end slow case developers. Call it one person in this example.

So some number of that 20 returned to work and those at work go back into quarantine. Likely a longer one, call it 21 days this time.

We are at 30 critical people at day 14, jumped to 50 at day 14, and now drop 30 more because of the slow case when he pops between day 14 and day 30.

So call day 18 as “delay pop day.” The critical staff is now at 20 from a start number of 60 at day 18. You have to make them work double shifts until the day 30, minimum, when you get back your 10 recovered bodies.

Odds are that some time in those double shift work days one of that 20 will catch COVID 19 before your ten recovered return and it will approach certainty before the uninfected from the 30 on a 21 day quarantine come back.

This will get plant shut down and rolling power brown outs and black outs.