The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

New York Times ^ | March 13, 2020 | Sheri Fink

[proust]

“The federal government is ordering all these closures behind the scenes.”

This is a good point. The schools can’t make these kinds of decisions on their own. It’s a boss, asking their boss, asking their boss, all the way up to the fed govt.

[gathersnomoss]

So, I counted three (3) “if’s” in two (2) paragraphs. That seems quite convincing to me....

[polymuser]

“Trump shouldn’t have used tariffs against China.”

China should move their people up from 3rd world living conditions and shouldn’t be experimenting carelessly with viruses and creating chimeras, Frankencreatures.

[daniel1212]

Stupid speculation on a stupid premise. The death toll will be 45 to 320,000,000.

You must mean world-wide. We will see. So far its 5,000 and slowing down. And the seasonal flu kills up to 646,000 people worldwide each year .

Trying to pin it down is a fools errand and inflaming panic. Lets deal with reality and not waste time speculating.

It is an on-going tally and comparison.

[daniel1212]

Fear Republic This is what it’s turning in to. Now we’re posting stories from such credible sites as the NYT.

Then see my response in post 63.

[VTenigma]

I don’t mean anything other than the speculation is only good for incitement. Let’s deal with the issue.

[daniel1212]

Don’t go introducing details into the hysteria.

Meaning details to calm the hysteria.

[Flaming Conservative]

😲

[daniel1212]

Virus denier!!!

One is charged with one or the other. The "only the headline and excerpt" readers vs. those who read the comment.

[Texas Eagle]

Correct. This is a full-fledged conniption you are trying to bring context and thoughtfulness into. We’ll have none of that on this forum, mister!

[Jane Long]

That wasn't me that said that....it was my reply, copying what they said, to another poster 🙄

[daniel1212]

This is not the flu. It's deadlier than the flu. It causes more critical illness than the flu and it's more virulent than the flu

Unlike the Flu, children rarely get it or show symptoms, with deaths mainly being that of the aged and infirm - esp. those in quarantine such as nursing homes, as it apparently is more contagious than the flu which did kill 80,000 Americans (2018).

[HamiltonJay]

When you calculate worst case, you throw away the IFs... and assume them to be truths.

Reality is, 20 Million came from this article, which I believe is a LOW number if this thing blows up... Nation of 330 Million, wouldn’t take much to top 20 Million cases.

But yielded to it..

But you want worst case based on 20 Million cases in a short time frame:

2-3 Million will be dead.

Period.

That’s the worst case, based on that number of infections.

Now, if you want to talk about what is likely to happen, that’s another story entirely... But these articles that talk about “number of beds” don’t remotely understand what they are talking about... BEDS are not the most limiting resource in fighting something like this... The limiting resource is the ventalator/respirator, and that number is FAR FAR smaller than the number of beds... So if you read anything talking about this and making projections and they talk about “the number of beds”, the estimate at the end will be abjectly wrong..

[daniel1212]

Open borders or quarantine?

[daniel1212]

Correct. This is a full-fledged conniption you are trying to bring context and thoughtfulness into. We’ll have none of that on this forum, mister!

How dare I attempt objectivity. Shoot first and do not ask questions.

[daniel1212]

When you calculate worst case, you throw away the IFs... and assume them to be truths. Reality is, 20 Million came from this article, which I believe is a LOW number if this thing blows up... Nation of 330 Million, wouldn’t take much to top 20 Million cases. But yielded to it.. But you want worst case based on 20 Million cases in a short time frame: 2-3 Million will be dead. Period.

But your WCS presumed another "if," "if no vaccine is developed. What do you think the morality count would be for the Flu is that was also the case. 80k here, 650K WW plus what?

[Texas Eagle]

There ya go. Now drink your stale gin and turn up the volume on the big screen. Big Brother will keep you apprised of what you need to know.

And, just as an aside, you haven't been in contact with anyone who might share your objectivity, have you?

[Leep]

Neither. Quarantine if it is warranted. Killing America's economy by shutting down large events..and sending large swaths of people from work..not sure that is the best idea. Maybe at large events they could leave ever other chair empty. Maybe Disney could reduce ticket sales by 50%. At work place send anyone home that has a cough and a high fever?

[Salamander]

Ya gotta keep laughing or ya might start screaming.

[Magic Fingers]

It’s telling that you didn’t get a substantive reply to your inquiry about a “medium stance” (i.e., they don’t have one).