You’re right, we might be. Maybe we would be a few days behind where we are now.
It’s a balancing act and a judgement call. There are no clear right answers or timing.
Something like the CDC failure is hard to anticipate, until there is a failure.
I will say this.
We’d better start planning for something like this to happen every ten years. Like planning for Hurricane Season. People are just too mobile for these things not to happen every once in awhile.