Posted on 03/12/2020 11:22:40 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
....................... Now, of course, an authoritarian country has tools at its disposal democracies do not. In any case, China has a total caseload of 80,000 that has been quite steady for a few weeks. China has a population of 1.4 billion. In other words, 1 in every 17,000 Chinese have come down with the disease. Obviously, the incidence rate in the Wuhan area is higher than the national incidence rate in China -- maybe more than 25 times higher. This is also the area where the disease spread rapidly since almost nobody early on knew what they were dealing with.
Yesterday, Germany’s Angela Merkel predicted that 60-70% of that country's population of roughly 85 million would come down with the virus. Really? Based on what? 1 in 17,000 in China but 7 in 10 in Germany? .......................... Why would Russia have only 15 cases? The world’s highest incidence rate could be in Iran, if the official numbers represent just a small fraction of the actual caseload as some non-government sources in the country suggest. Iranian leadership has been decimated by the virus, which has not occurred anywhere else.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
She was wrong on opening her borders and on most other things so hopefully she keeps her streak going on this!
See post # 19
Very interesting - thanks
LOL go ahead of believe the WHO..I have been following this every day since JAN..almost by the hour
WHO= China Puppets of China
I suggest you go back to the live thread started here in late JAN and read up
I can try to give you something straight. The key to epidemiology is the virology. If they are having twice the death rate of Wuhan in the early stages 3.7% you ought to be able to look at the germ and show why.
The virus kills three ways co-morbity, viral pneumonia and cytokine storm/septic shock. Some families/gene pools over produce the ACE2 receptor. Some families over produce the helper-2 t-cell. This is why it was important to know who is dying. Air pollution in Wuhan and 30 years of smoking coincides with an abundance of those receptors in the lungs and gut. Italy? What is going on there?
I have not seen the supporting data from Italy. I do not see anything in the germ to make it that lethal. Asian smokers over age 60 makes a lot of sense and matches the virology. If you only count the cases 80 years and older the CFR is 14.9%. Put everybody in the count and you get 1%. New England Journal of Medicine says <1%. Korean data suggested .87 cfr. This matches the virology/pathogenicity of HCoV-19/SARS-CoV-2.
Thank you in advance for any links or any contradiction from anyone at all but especially those who know the science. Flutracker is excellent. I am with John’s Hopkins on this. Thanks!
One of the problems is that we’ve had virus scares every couple of years. People have had a hard time accepting this one, because the others got managed.
But yeah, I think we will continue to have scares every couple of years. And maybe it’s another 100 years before a spanish flu or coronavirus. Or maybe it’s next year.
The plus side, is our medicine and science is a lot more advanced than it was when the Spanish flu hit. The downside is it still takes time to develop something and prove it’s effective and safe.
The thing is, even 2009 had become a distant memory to me. I vaguely remember my office giving out hand sanitizer to everyone (good luck with that this time).
But going back and reading the thread back then it looked pretty ominous, with dire predictions, all like what we’re seeing here. Yes, we’ve got a rocky road ahead.
But I think, as with 2009, most of us will have forgotten about this all in due time. But until then, buckle up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE4_LsftNKM
A little good news.
I have plenty of respect for Dr. Bruce Aylward. I suggest you read the entire article. In fact everyone should read it. It is very informative.
I watched the presser...he talked for an HR almost passing out from lack of sleep...
he also in that presser talked about how everyone did their duty, no matter how small, to save as many lives as possible like a war machine....and was afraid that the West wouldn’t be able to do that.... as Italy is finding out
.
That is very informative and I greatly appreciate it. However, in addition to concerns about the morbidity rate I’m concerned about reports here which purport to be from doctors, stating that a fairly horrific health care situation is going on in Italy. I’m not really finding news reports of people being left for dead in hallways in Italy. Not that I will feel better knowing that a higher percentage of people are dying, but I will feel better if being a week or 2 behind Italy in the progression of this virus does not necessarily mean that we will find ourselves unable to obtain health care while patients and possibly some doctors drop like flies. As to the morbidity, at this point I’m completely confused as to whether this is a pure panic or a real disaster.
Interesting, thanks for posting.
I’ve taken quercetin in the past for allergies.
I bet I have some around here somewhere.
The president has signalled his intention to use his authority to dispatch emerge med teams to the hotspot areas. They will set up at alternate locations and and provide overflow for all patients including ongoing flu infections.
There is reason for concern. But there is a plan in place. This is not a drill, but I predict that it will show the system weaknesses without a great loss of life and we will be better prepared when the next one hits.
This ain’t the big one, but it will be enough to scare us into preparing for the big one.
Hand washing works! Sixty seconds with hot soapy water. It works and if people are scared enough maybe they will wash their hands!
I read that visiting CHina for the Chinese New Year is one of the biggest events for traveling and we do know that Italy has a very large contingent of Chinese workers....
I think you know why.....$$$$$$$
Ty again.
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