Not necessarily, provided we successfully flatten the curve by self-quarantining, closing down crowded events, closing businesses in which somebody tested positive for deep-cleaning and replenishment of items — probably have to throw all the existing items out — etc.
Of course the flu bros, Nancy Snydermans and profit-uber-alles people won’t stand for it, so you’ll unfortunately end up winning this bet.
I watched CNN for a few minutes because they were interviewing the infectious disease director of the New Rochelle hospital.
She seemed highly intelligent, highly motivated, thinking carefully about make this work for her patients.
Here is the numbers she is looking at.
A week ago there was one citizen in the New Rochelle area who tested positive for the virus. Today there are over a hundred.
She has two ventilator machines which can serve four people if she stretches and put two people in a room.
After that she has to bring in equipment from another hospital (if she can find it) or move her patients to another hospital (if they will take them).
Right in the interview they asked her “What about next week?” “Won’t the number of patients be a lot larger?”
I wanted to cry for her.
She is one week for her world being destroyed, and patients dying on her watch.
One week.
Run the numbers.
“Flattening the curve...”
Nice talk for med school.
In the real world—she and her counterparts around the country are going to get crushed by any shape of the curve.