Everything we have been posting here for the past two weeks would scare the (*&^ out of people, and it has been accurate.
They didn’t want to scare people, not that complicated.
So many I know are trying to start this week and panicking because they can't find things.
“not that complicated”
One the R0 was known to be between 2 and 4, and once aerosol transmission was known, everything else was easy to predict.
The average 3rd grader could have done it.
Of course, the only wild card is Social Isolation. That can substantially slow the R0 and even bring it below 1 and thus allowing the virus to die out.
Lock downs work. China is proof.
Now it’s just matter of will.