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To: LilFarmer

“COVID-19’s slower spread continues”

I am hoping we follow South Korea example and not Italy example. The problem we have here is a good part of the population keeps comparing it to a flu. Hopefully there is enough us to treat it like South Korea did.

South Korea it is taking 30 days for it to die down, the virus did not spread country wide.

South Korea vs Italy: The outbreak started at the same time. Italy did not practice social distancing, Italy cases are double South Korea and Death rate is 10x of South Korea. Italy outbreak will last as long as Wuhan 51 days.


1,095 posted on 03/13/2020 6:05:33 AM PDT by DEPcom
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To: DEPcom
South Korea it is taking 30 days for it to die down, the virus did not spread country wide.

SK is almost 2 weeks removed from their "surge" of new cases, and appears to have very nearly stopped the spread. A portion of those 10-14 day old cases are becoming "serious" now, and they are seeing an uptick in deaths, now at about 0.9%. Absent a second outbreak, I suspect their final CFR will be 1.2% to 1.5%. According to their doctors, many of their hospitals have been very close to their limits. I really hope we have good data regarding treatments, anti-viral drugs, etc from those countries ahead of us, and we can implement better strategies than them.

SK's 8K cases would translate to about 53K cases here.

1,303 posted on 03/13/2020 11:02:33 AM PDT by ETCM
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