It's actually sad to see.
I ginned up the very crude graph and inset it next to @ByMakeBaker's numbers just to give folks a mental image.
Our p/c case numbers are where Italy's were 2 weeks ago, that's the only difference.
Posted on 03/11/2020 12:51:02 PM PDT by cba123
Nearly 200 people in Italy have died in 24 hours as cases of coronavirus in the country continue to rise.
There have been 827 deaths in Italy and the number of cases increased by more than 2,000, from 10,149 to 12,462, official figures showed.
(Please see link for full details)
(Excerpt) Read more at news.sky.com ...
Very, very, very good.
Would you mind adding Canada?
At some point you may want to break out some individual U.S. states.
On a different note, that doesn’t pertain to you directly, I wonder how many Chinese over 80 reside in Italy.
Here is why the big jumps:
Italy is prioritizing young COVID-19 patients over the elderly.
https://www.businessinsider.com/prioritizing-covid-19-patients-based-age-likely-wont-fly-us-2020-3
This is horrifying. Is it true a single Pakistani started this? The AP reported as such, then retracted it after UK “Asian rights” groups howled.
It’s not Chinese dying in Italy. And it’s not only 80 year olds. Anybody over 65 or at any age with a co-morbid condition does not make the triage cut, and dies.
We are 3 weeks behind Italy, THAT’S IT.
“Is it true a single Pakistani started this?”
Yesterday it was reported Patient Zero was a German chap working in the Italian division of his company.
Exponential increase happens in the early stages of an epidemic, where each infected passes it to the surrounding uninfected.
There comes a time, though, when everyone eventually has been exposed. The ones who were naturally immune, the ones who had a mild-to-serious-case and recovered, now have the antibodies. The ones who will die, have died.
The epidemic then tapers off and ends.
Right now, we have no idea what percentage of the population might have already gotten it, and recovered thinking it was just a regular flu.
11 March Covid-19 Update, Italy and the United States
Dr. John Campbell “Evidence-Based Analysis”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzXQ6Bu9JVI
The Cloward-Piven virus.
That is a really informative plot. You are showing a 33% per day growth rate, quite close to the 35% figure I have using in my own posts.
And the plot should scare the pants off of anyone paying attention to the spread of the CV.
But there is a little good news: South Korea and Japan. And even Italy is showing a slight downturn in the infection rate.
If you have a reference to the source of the plot you should post it.
Are you watching what is going on in Italy, compared to, for example, South Korea?
Do you think North Italians are just particularly stupid, lazy and dirty, compared to Americans?
Do you think some magical American quality will prevent what is happening today in Italy from happening in the USA in three weeks?
Italy’s numbers 3 weeks ago are where our numbers are today.
“We are 3 weeks behind Italy, THAT’S IT.”
Like many Americans we live in a rural area with few hospitals and few doctors. Our local hospital runs at 70% full in normal times. We are screwed if this hits bad in 3 weeks. Our population is majority seniors. Young people have moved away
The next closest hospital near is an hour away.
Living out in rural America-best and worst of times.
I heard it was a Pakistani, too. These rights groups and PC will get people killed due to stupidity.
No argument with you—only with post four.
More red vino ! Solves all earthly problems!
It seems that Liz Sprecht's forecast on March 6, 2020 in "Risk of Systemic Healthcare Failure due to #COVID19" is coming true. She wrote that...Italian hospitals are so ‘overwhelmed’ by the coronavirus outbreak that stroke patients are going untreated, a doctor has revealed.
The entire country has been placed under an unprecedented quarantine as officials desperately try to contain the virus, which has killed 631 people so far – the highest number of fatalities outside of mainland China.More than 10,000 have contracted the Covid-19 strain of coronavirus, with tens of thousands more being tested in hospitals.
A medic in northern Italy said hospitals were running at ‘200 per cent capacity’ with doctors forced into life-or-death decisions over who should receive intensive care.
Patients who don’t have coronavirus are being sidelined, while some patients over 65 are not even being assessed, the doctor said.
In a Twitter thread published by the medic’s friend, Jason van Schoor, they warned Britain could face similar chaos if they do not take it seriously. Mr van Schoor, an anaesthetist and clinical fellow at University College London, said his Italian friend works as an A&E consultant and intensive care medic. ‘The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all,’ the unnamed medic told Mr van Schoor.
‘We’ve stopped all routine, all operating rooms have been converted to intensive care units and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of patients with severe respiratory failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask. Patients above 65, or younger with comorbidities, are not even assessed by intensive care units, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed. My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen.’
Professor Francois Balloux, of the University College London Genetics Institute, said the outbreak’s trajectory in the UK is ‘roughly comparable’ to northern Italy, which is two to three weeks further along.
the United States has ~1M hospital beds and, at any given time, 65% of those beds are occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide. Her exponential growth model shows that about May 8 all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. She wrote that if she is wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th.With exponential growth, doubling or halving some of the important assumptions does not change the outcome much -- it pushes the healthcare system collapse out or pulls it in by a week or two. Her model is playing out as we write over in Northern Italy.
The only way to stop this is with a vaccine and the earliest that will be available is sometime in 2021.
In North Italy, over 65 you get no ICU now. You fail the triage cut, there are just not enough beds, machines, or staff.
Ditto for any age with a co-morbid condition. Sorry, not enough beds.
That’s why Italy’s death rate is so high. The old or already weakened die untreated.
I’ve seen no info on elderly Chinese in Italy being part of the equation.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/
So much for the idea that only the old are going to die.
From a doctor in Milan:
ll operations have been cancelled, GP surgeries closed so the that the GPs can come in and be ward doctors."The number of ICU beds has been tripled. There was even pressure to take over our Cardiac ICU."
"All the resuscitation bays are full. They’re having to triage, deciding who to intubate and who to let die." Medical personnel in a coronavirus quarantined area in northern Italy.
He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.
More from the article:
The World Health Organisation ranks Italy second in the world for health care provision, with only France rated higher. The UK is 18th.
That is across the whole country, but Lombardy is the richest region in Italy and likely to be way ahead of some regions in the south.
It's actually sad to see.
I ginned up the very crude graph and inset it next to @ByMakeBaker's numbers just to give folks a mental image.
Our p/c case numbers are where Italy's were 2 weeks ago, that's the only difference.
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