Posted on 03/11/2020 12:15:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
I looked up the numbers this morning and just going by memory I think there were 1100 cases in the United States and 31 deaths.
With increased testing soon there will be three thousand or four thousand or 10,000 cases in the United States and I say less than a hundred deaths.
The number of cases will make a lot of people happy, and the loan number of deaths it’s going to cause them great anxiety
I remember back at the time that HIV ‘crisis ‘ was in its earlier stages some medical person in Colorado Springs, who was on the El Paso County payroll, predicted, based on his study of the numbers, that the numbers were going to decrease.
They fired him.
It turned out that he was exactly right he had called it within a couple of months of the peak.
It’s my estimation that we are in the same place today.
unfortunately unless they really start testing everyone, only the really sick will be tested and that will skew the numbers higher. I actually think a ton of people tested helps because yes the affected number will go up but the severe reported cases will go down as far as percentages.
I think that would actually help calm people
So you are using the number of sick people as the denominator.
Do that.
Divide the number of recovered (8) by the number of sick (1100) and tell me the survival rate.
Divide the number dead (31) by the number of sick (1100) and tell me the fatality rate.
Do those rates add up to 100%?
Why not, hmmm?
1100 sick minus 8 recovered = 1092 dead?
You’re right, it’s panic time.
Pathetic.
Secret Agent Man wrote: “Yes but many japanese and koreans live in densely packed areas and in multi-unit buildings, so there’s additional factors to consider.”
The NYTimes reports some 63.5% of cases in Korea can be traced to one church which practices prayer in close proximity.
Also most people get percentages by division, not subtraction.
I think when you and I were kids, that was taught in 4th grade. It’s probably college level math now...
I am going with the South Korean numbers (massive testing program...7,755 cases, 60 fatalities, 288 recovered so far) resulting in a “for now” death rate of 0.77%. So if COVID-19 gets to 35 million cases in the USA like an average flu year (highly unlikely this flu season/year) then potential US fatalities from COVID-19 are 269,000. But by next year we should have a vaccine (or 2 or 3). So for me COVID-19 is “a bad flu causing a lot of pneumonia esp. in older folks, am going to practice social distancing & lots of hand washing”.
Some of the 1100 maybe sick for weeks. By that time there will be many many more sick.
Maybe even five or ten thousand more.
If you want to wait for all of those to resolve that’s up to you. I prefer to go with what we know today.
Interesting. Close quarters, in any variety of ways, fosters spread of disease. Also fires, but thats another thing.
And that’s what dems and libs want, people to not live in standalone houses, but be racked and stacked on each other with shared ventilation and sewer lines and large common use areas.
It basically is a comtrol thing, a comfortable cage/prison that you pay to live in.
I had no issue with your response, just making my own clarifications. :)
RE: Anyone hear of any estimates how long this will last? When do the “experts” think this thing will burn itself out?
SEE HERE:
China is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths. But its cases peaked and began declining more than a month ago, according to data presented by the Canadian epidemiologist who spearheaded the World Health Organization’s coronavirus mission to China. Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000.
Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law. First formulated in 1840 and ignored in every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.
Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.
Me too! ;)
IOW, the more sick people there are, the lower you think the fatality rate is and will be.
Got it!
Where would a 15 year old kid get antibodies to a novel virus.
Sometimes when you read these articles you have to go to the end in order for the “stupid” to spill out on the floor.
Americans are so desperate to find a loophole in this situation, something to support their angle, they will listen to people make ridiculous statements like 15 year olds and younger having immunity—as if they were born with the “upgraded” immune system.
| How Virus Was Contracted | Cases |
|---|---|
| Cluster connected to a community in New Rochelle, N.Y. | 113 |
| Personal contact in U.S. | 73 |
| Nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash. | 57 |
| Travel overseas | 45 |
| Diamond Princess cruise ship | 43 |
| Travel in Egypt | 39 |
| Travel in Italy | 30 |
| Business conference in Boston | 29 |
| Travel within the U.S. | 25 |
| Grand Princess cruise in March | 21 |
| Grand Princess cruise in February | 20 |
| Travel in China | 15 |
| Hospital in Vacaville, Calif. | 3 |
| Connected to Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. | 3 |
| Connected to Episcopal church in Washington, D.C. | 3 |
| Nursing facility in Stanwood, Wash. | 3 |
| Travel in Iran | 2 |
| Travel in South Korea | 1 |
| UNKNOWN | 665 |
Korea and Japan are very densely populated countries. The US, not so much.
Yes, finally you get it.
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