Posted on 03/11/2020 12:15:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Hopefully the US rate will be lower than elsewhere, my speculation is here it’ll be somewhere between 1 to 2 percent.
Unless you’re over 70 years old and/or suffer from an existing pulmonary condition, you’re not under threat from SARS-CoV-2. Italians suffered a high death rate because of demographic factors such as large number of elderly and the way many Italians greet each other.
I’ve said for long time that once widespread testing results begin coming in the death rate is going to fall way way below 1%, with widespread disappointment and unhappiness.
RE: and the way many Italians greet each other.
The Japanese don’t hug each other when they greet. They bow. So do the Koreans. But they also have high infection rates.
My guess is going to be lower than that because we never got the huge spike of initial infections like what happened in Japan and South Korea, thanks to strict bans of people coming in from China at the beginning of February 2020. And definitely not the cultural factors that contributed to its fast spread in Iran and Italy. My guess is 0.3%, mostly anyone over 70 and/or afflicted with a pulmonary disease.
But the Japanese and South Koreans didn’t aggressively stop people coming in from China until well after the US banned them at the beginning of February 2020. Fortunately, the disease is starting to fall in South Korea, since it appears the government has gotten its message out for older people to protect themselves more diligently. The same applies for Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, where aggressive government publicity efforts over social networks commonly used in Asia has kept the spread there under control.
Yes but many japanese and koreans live in densely packed areas and in multi-unit buildings, so there’s additional factors to consider.
But yet, SARS-CoV-2 didn’t overrun Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. Maybe highly aggressive government publicity efforts over TV, radio, Internet web pages and social networks helped?
I think that hes definitely, and having people adopt effective simple ways to reduce their getting infected.
This man is not a political hack or a kook:
So, if it’s 1%, and let’s suppose that with better medicine in the US, we could cut that in half, that’s still not very good.
Who will be the first freeper to catch Covid-19? Will we get our live thread updates on symptoms, effects, quarantine, etc....?
Numbers from South Korea seem to indicate somewhere between 0.5 and 1%. Most probably we’ll end up there. That is much higher than the flu and cause for concern. But not these crazy panic numbers.
As we pretty much all suspected.
Now the question is — can the ERs and ICUs handle the coming load of critical patients.
That 1% fatality is 1% of people who actually get infected, not 1% of the entire country population.
Further, like the flu, that 1% is not spread out evenly across everyone who gets infected. Certain demographics are going to be much higher and others much lower.
Third thing is what strain you get. they know of AT LEAST two different ones, and one is mild and one is more severe and has the lung/pneumonia issue that comes up easier.
Much of this can be prevented and risk reduced just by increasing handwashing, santizing phones and surfaces you touch, and not being in large groupings any more than you absolutely need to be. Which is what a lot of people do in the winter, anyway, just because it’s winter.
And if you don’t have kids at home that is a huge disease vector you don’t have to worry about. Otherwise you should be practicing more sanitary processes all the time not just when its flu season or the wintertime.
“My guess is going to be lower than that because we never got the huge spike of initial infections like what happened in Japan and South Korea, thanks to strict bans of people coming in from China at the beginning of February 2020.”
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Could be, I hope you’re right. The problem I see with the reasoning is that we’re dealing with a barn that has hundreds of doors. Shut the China door, but all the other ones have been wide open for a long time. Lots of horses getting out to this day.
Hmmm. When I calculate deaths/completed cases I get 6.4%
Does their formula get percentage of recovered + percentage of fatalities = 100%?
Until yesterday the mortality rate (deaths/completed cases) was falling. It never got below 5.7% and is starting to climb again.
I'm still hoping you are correct and the final rate will be close to 1%.
Anyone hear of any estimates how long this will last? When do the “experts” think this thing will burn itself out?
The caller to Rush, a doctor, between 2:00 and 2:15, made some good points about how the numbers being put out there aren’t realy based on good scientific research protocol.
But ... whatever it takes to harm Trump is what’s going to be reported. And the CDC is fill of hotshots like Rod Rosenstein’s sister, so there’s that.
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