Sophisticated modelling of the outbreak suggests that China had 114,325 cases by the end of February 2020, a figure that would have been 67 times higher without interventions such as early detection, isolation of the infected, and travel restrictions.
But if the interventions could have been brought in a week earlier, 66% fewer people would have been infected, the analysis found. The same measures brought in three weeks earlier could have reduced cases by 95%.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20029843v2
25 discharged patients with COVID-19 infection were back hospitalized because of the virus mRNA recurrence. The median age of these 17 females and 8 males was 28 years (16.25~42), including 6 children under 12 years old.
21 of them had no comorbidity and 22 patients had the history of residing in Hubei province. Besides, 24 of them were once non-severe patient with the common symptoms of fever (17/25) and cough (14/25) at onset. Overall, with 14 (13-18.5) days of the hospital stay, as well as 13 (10.5-16.5) days of antivirus treatment, the patients all discharged in 2 (1-3.8) days after two consecutive negative results on virus mRNA RT-PCR detection, as well as improvements on chest computed tomography (CT) evidence.
With 14/25 of cloacal swab samples and rest of Nasal Swabs or oropharynx swab samples testing, these patients presented the repeated positive COVID-19 mRNA within 3 (2-7) days after the hospital. Notably, the median time from their last negative result to turning positive was 6 (4-10) days.
These patients were then hospitalized again and continued the quarantine protocol. All these patients were asymptomatic and chest CT scanning indicated that 12 of them even showed improvement while rest of them represented with no obvious change compared with previous images. With a few days of prophylactic intervention with Chinese herbal medicine, the RT-PCR results of virus mRNA detection were all turning to negative in both nasopharyngeal swab and cloacal swab samples.
Furthermore, correlation analysis indicated that there was a significant inverse correlation existed between serum D Dimer level and the duration of antiviral treatment (r=-0.637, p=0.002), while lymphocyte concentration significantly positively correlated (r=0.52, p=0.008) with the duration of virus reversal. These implied that the imperfect antivirus therapy probably was responsible for the recurrence of COVID-19 virus.
NOT PEER REVIEWED:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.06.20031377v1.full.pdf
Great stats thanks. Shows you the huge difference we can make by taking actions today across the US rather than once our communities are already hard hit like Seattle.