Flu Fears Spread in China Ahead of Lunar New Year Holiday; Millions of Chinese will be traveling during the weeklong holiday

Wall Street Journal ^ | 14 Feb 2018 | Fanfan Wang and Liyan Qi

[Zhang Fei]

BEIJING--Chinese health authorities said the worst influenza season in recent years was straining the country's resources and some experts warned that the Lunar New Year holiday, when hundreds of millions of Chinese go on the road, could make things worse.

Adding to anxiety was a post on social-messaging platform WeChat over the weekend describing how a 60-year-old man died in a Beijing intensive-care unit after a three-week battle with influenza. The post, by the man's son-in-law, detailed the family's struggle to get access to treatment and medicine made scarce by the outbreak.

Flu cases across China reached almost 274,000 in January, the National Health and Family Planning Commission said Monday, more than double the 121,800 cases in December and eight times the cases in January 2017.

The commission earlier this month said the closings of schools for the holiday were likely to help limit new infections.

There were 56 flu deaths in January, the commission said Monday, compared with five in December. China reported only 38 deaths for all of 2017, well below numbers in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Flu deaths are difficult to estimate. The World Health Organization said many flu deaths occur among the elderly and are often attributed to an underlying medical condition. Once a flu season ends, statistical models can help form a more accurate estimate. The flu kills between 12,000 and 56,000 people in the U.S. each year, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which estimates that this season's death toll will be at the upper range.

The SARS outbreak ... centered on China and Hong Kong, with a combined 648 deaths out of a global total of 774, according to the WHO. China accounted for more than 5,000 of about 8,000 cases around the world.

[Zhang Fei]

Blast from the past (2018) that may be relevant in explaining the Chinese government's massive reaction to COVID-19 that included provincial-scale quarantines. The Chinese flu numbers have always been minuscule. They were used to dozens or hundreds of deaths, at most, a year from the flu (vs tens of thousands in the US). The coronavirus was yielding hundreds of dead in a single month, just from cases focused in a single province. This may be China's first exposure to a respiratory disease as lethal as the flu is stateside. So the government panicked.

[no-to-illegals]

Oh no !!! Travel, airplanes, boats, skin contact to skin and other surfaces ...... Oh No !!!

[LouieFisk]

Sure seems like they were caught off balance on this one.

[ncpatriot]

The people of the World are going to get mad at China for keep giving us viruses every year.

[CatOwner]

The people of the World are going to get mad at China for keep giving us viruses every year.

Nah. The trade-off is people get to purchase cheap-ass items made in China at Walmart. /s

[ifinnegan]

A dozen deaths a year from flu is impossible.

[ETCM]

China has similar flu rates per 100,000 to western countries, including the USA, and higher mortality per 100,000 above age 65.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

[Zhang Fei]

[A dozen deaths a year from flu is impossible.]

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That’s like saying blacks get skin cancer at the same rate as whites. Or that whites are just as prone to sickle cell anemia as blacks. There are genetic differences shaped by local environments. My impression is that China is basically a petri dish for virulent bugs. People who were vulnerable to the flu presumably died young and left no issue.

This WHO study uses US data and extrapolates it to China:

https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/90/4/11-096958/en/

It’s like they placed a ruler on a chart and extended the line so it would map to the Chinese population. I have a ruler and a pencil. I could probably have done that kind of study for far less money.

[9422WMR]

Hint:
Don’t take aspirin for the flu!

[calenel]

Note the ridiculous historical underreporting of deaths by the Chinese government. It’s not new. It doesn’t make the Chinese somehow miraculously immune to the flu. What it does is call into question their reporting of their current mortalities.

[ifinnegan]

You’ve gone round the bend.

From your own link

“Our estimates of the annual rates for total influenza-associated all-cause mortality and for influenza-associated mortality attributed to respiratory and circulatory disease in eight Chinese cities are similar to estimates from other countries.”

[Zhang Fei]

[You’ve gone round the bend.

From your own link]

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My point is that when you set out to make your guess the same as everyone else’s, in the name of not looking like a kook, you will succeed. A WHO study is going to have the same pre-determined outcome re differences in disease outcomes by race/ethnicity as a climate change study setting out to prove that man is the principal factor making the earth warmer - you will always get the answer you assume beforehand. And it’s not my study - I’m merely citing it to point to the mumbo jumbo they’ve dreamed up.

[ifinnegan]

Still don’t understand what you’re trying to say.