WHAT??!!!
Somebody has to pin Fauci or Redfield down on that. A "Case Fatality Rate" is defined by the number of reported fatalities divided by the number of REPORTED (and confirmed) CASES. Almost by definition, most "asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases" are, as you say, UNREPORTED. Therefor, the only way to compare CFR's is if the denominators have the same definition:
Compare flu reported fatalities divided by reported cases, vs. COVID-19 reported fatalities divided by reported cases, which in both diseases does NOT include the minimally symptomatic cases;
OR, come up with a comparison of estimated infection fatality rates = flu reported fatalities divided by estimated flu infections vs. COVID-19 reported fatalities divided by estimated COVID-19 infections.
Now, CDC estimates 40 million symptomatic flu illnesses in 2018-19 (middle of range), but, wait a minute, that doesn't include the estimated 30% of asymptomatic infections. So, that means something like 57 million flu infections in 2018-19. The "high end" number for flu deaths in 2018-19 is about 61,000 fatalities. That yields that number of ~0.1%, which is not a "case" rate, it is an estimated infection fatality rate.
The experts cited put the COVID-19 infection fatality rate (misnamed by them) at between 1% and 0.1%. So it's a pretty good guess that when* COVID-19 infections catch up with flu infections, the number of hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients will on the low end equal the number of flu hospitalizations in 2018-19 (600,000), and on the high end will be 10x the number of flu hospitalizations in 2018-19. Even neglecting a slight decline in current total hospital beds from 2018-19, adding on an additional 600,000 hospitalizations this year for COVID-19 will be a severe strain on our health care facilities and providers. A 5x or God forbid 10x increase is a disaster, which will then push up fatality rates for all causes.
*But wait, it gets even more fun. If 80% of COVID-19 cases are mild or asymptomatic, it will spread faster than flu*, eventually surpassing flu infection numbers, even if COVID-19 is not, particle per particle, more infectious than last year's flu(s). This is what we are seeing begin in some other countries. (China's lockdown can NOT be replicated here.) The only way to prevent this is to test virtually EVERYONE with high accuracy tests, and isolate all positives, fairly early on.
That last is exactly why a virus with a small but significant rate of serious or critical cases, and a large % of asymptotic cases, is actually more dangerous than a virus that makes almost everyone quite ill, and kills a higher % of it's victims.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6824a3.htm
I think one of the worst things about COVID-19 is that it probably isn’t seasonal which means no relief from it. I hope it subsides as we head into spring and summer, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Trust the CDC. The CDC is your friend.
Apples and oranges. But important anyway. People here “3.4%”, and they think “if I am exposed, I’m going to die”.
So having some idea of the fatality rate among people who are actually exposed is important.
ESPECIALLY since we are entering a phase where we are going to do widespread testing of groups of people who were exposed, rather than groups that show symptoms.
My best example now is the first cruise ship. Tested everybody. The results, about 705 positives, and of those, 410 were asymptomatic, meaning they wouldn’t have been tested normally. That leaves 295 tested with symptoms.
Now, 295 sypmtomatic, and 7 deaths, gives you a “death rate” of about 2.4%.
But if you heard that they found 705 cases on the ship, and knew the “2.4%” number, you would think that there were 17 people dead.
So, that other number, total mortality rate, is important, especially for public perception.
And frankly, the important number is that it is below 1%. For some reason, people think that the flu is nothing, even though it kills 1 out of every thousand people who get symptoms or more, meaning 10s of thousands of people are dying, yet only 40% get the vaccine.
But people assume that if they get coughed on by someone with coronavirus, they will 100% get infected, and have a 3% chance of dying. Neither of those are true, but it is how the media is presenting this.