1) I seriously doubt that Fauci and Brix are the only ones providing medical advice, and the continued struggles in Italy lend "just enough" credence to their high estimates that Trump cannot afford to take them lightly.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) March 29, 2020
2) While @OBgynFl and @MJ452020 and others have provided what I think are more sensible estimates, the last thing Trump (or any thoughtful president) will do is open things up too soon, only to have to slam it shut again.
3) I am NOT looking forward to another month of this & small businesses are going to be hurting.
4) What I'm hoping is that once they see the #s turn down consistently, Trump will announce a re-opening right then. So I doubt we'll go to the end of April. But you never know.
5) There is also THIS possibility: That per Steve Bannon, this is being analyzed as a deliberate act from China, that the Trump team wants to be sure they aren't blundering into a sort of trap by re-opening too soon.
6) I don't think Trump listens exclusively to Brix or Fauci.
7) But the key is, I think as he sees it, lives over economic damage. As a builder, he knows you can recover from a failed construction project or a bad deal. It's painful, but absolutely doable.
8) As long as he continues to be viewed as being concerned about people's lives over economic considerations--yes, they are tied, but one is always put over the other--he'll be fine. This is the famous "cares about someone like me" question that reelected Zero in a recession.
9) I have provided on multiple occasions examples of how the US has recovered from economic setbacks of much greater length and depth than this. But there WILL be a restructuring.
10) Undercapitalized small businesses will disappear. We will likely lose at least one The decoupling from China, not just here but with Italy and other Euro countries, will be massive.
11) On the other side, whether it is six months or a year, though, one thing seems more and more clear:
The decoupling from China, not just here but with Italy and other Euro countries, will be massive.
12) I have friends who think this was a conspiracy between the globalist elites and Chinese. Well, if so, they all put themselves in the front lines for damage.
13) Much of our medical/pharma industry will relocate. The fashion industry in Italy that relied on Chinese money will shrivel. Production houses such as Skydancer (Ellison/Cruise) will see capital dry up.
14) And we have no way of estimating the real death toll in China. The last thing then need is a 2-3 year interruption of their new "Silk Road" plan for economic domination.
15) Socially, long-term this will likely bring about changes, including even fewer going to mass events--concerts, sporting events, etc. It may see a marginal shift to families eating at home more, reviving cooking and baking skills.
16) Speaking with some in the homeschool community, they think this will cause a revived interest in homeschool, which had plateaued at about 5% of the total # of students in America. (It had grown for several years up to that 5%).
17) Politically, Trump is very much in the position that FDR was in in 1936. Nobody blamed him for the Depression. He was reelected twice before the War for "doing something" and again, the old, "He cares about people like me."
18) The DemoKKKrats cannot do one thing without looking like ghouls.
19) They DON'T want to call for reopening the economy--that benefits Trump. But aside from Botoxic and Demented Biteme, most of them can't criticize Trump's actions too much . . . because of the "he cares about people like me" aspect. Trump's fallback line is the same as FDR's: "I'm trying to save the American people from a disaster."
20) So, to those who think "if he doesn't open up the economy in a week he's doomed," I say poppycock. Republicans who get in line with the "cares about people like me" sentiment are in good shape.
Those who say, "We should be doing x/y/z are always gonna be weak voices when lives are at stake. Teachers, factory workers, virtually anyone who works in crowds knows that until they are confident in an "all clear" signal, NO business will be anywhere close to 100%. On the other hand, if everyone believes that the creature is truly dead when the "all clear" signal is given, the economy will rebound rather quickly--admittedly there will be some casualties and there will be changes in our lives.
21) Just for example, the gym/fitness industry: how quickly will people want to go back to gyms and handle equipment handled by dozens of other people, or get in a sweaty exercise class? I don't know.
22) Our local (apparently well funded) gym chain here has sent emails urging members to lobby Congress for a bailout, so that isn't reassuring.
23) How many undercapitalized or marginal family restaurants are there? Probably a lot. How many chains like Panera or McDonald's have been able to take up some of the slack with take out? Some. How long will it take people to again feel like taking a cruise, even if they have the money? (I didn't even want to get on a cramped boat BEFORE, let alone now).
24) How many businesses found that they had a lot of physical plant and office space that they really didn't need, and that people working from home (as with my son's company) proved pretty effective and reduced costs? Probably many.
25) It's partly the "broken window" effect, that even broken windows generate economic activity--although usually not the most desired economic activity. But just as it would be unrealistic to think all businesses will survive this, it is equally unrealistic to think that there will not be a number of "winners" in new areas of service.
26) Anyway, we'll see. The biggest challenge I think for most of us is not economic but mental: for a nation addicted to social activities, sports, concerts, movies, church, eating out, how much "alone time" can we tolerate before jumping off Papago Peak?
I'm a very loyal Trump supporter but this is total BS. You don't lock down the United States over a virus! Never, ever! I mean, damn, are we going to do this every time a new "scary" virus shows up? Sadly my President got played by the globalists and China. 😠— American Patriot (@AmPatriot_Ron) March 29, 2020
Not at all. The fact that people like Bannon are suggesting still this may have been deliberate also suggests it may be more deadly or dangerous than they are telling us.
Trump's people know the Spanish Flu numbers. But a US government today can't just stand by as Wilson did.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) March 29, 2020
I also see there could be a big shift in how we educate - especially at the university level. i have said for years, why are we still teaching classes, with a professor lecturing in a classroom, in 2020 like we did in 1950?