[DouglasKC]

45,734 Cases which had an outcome

42,733 (93%) Recovered / Discharged

3,001 (7%) Deaths

Is that right? Is that a 7% Case Fatality rate?

[BusterDog]

Age distribution (N = 44 672) ≥80 years: 3% (1408 cases) 30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases) 20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases) 10-19 years: 1% (549 cases) <10 years: 1% (416 cases) Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415) Mild: 81% (36 160 cases) Severe: 14% (6168 cases) Critical: 5% (2087 cases) Case-fatality rate 2.3% (1023 of 44 672 confirmed cases) 14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408) 8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918) 49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087) https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

[HollyB]

Further down it shows

45,734
Cases which had an outcome:

42,733 (93%)
Recovered / Discharged

3,001 % death

[rfp1234]

No, I think it means the change relative to yesterday is a 7% increase.

[HollyB]

Here is further explanation. It looks like Wuhan has a much higher fatality rate than everywhere else. So, if you combine both Wuhan & elsewhere, the numbers look bad.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

[scouter]

45,734 Cases which had an outcome
42,733 (93%) Recovered / Discharged

3,001 (7%) Deaths

Is that right? Is that a 7% Case Fatality rate?

---

Yes, that is correct, BUT... there are so many factors that we can’t yet account for, including, among others:

1. There are probably many, many, many undiagnosed cases that are mild enough not to be counted.
2. The vast majority of cases are in China, and the numbers are, by definition, unreliable. For example, China’s numbers have remained virtually unchanged for days. I’m thinking they have simply stopped really counting and reporting.
3. Picking up on #2, their health care system is completely overwhelmed.
4. A more advanced health care system and open government will be able (at least theoretically) to respond more effectively than China’s.
5. Other countries are forewarned. And forewarned is forearmed.

I’m not saying we shouldn’t be concerned I believe we should be very concerned. But frankly, my preparations are centered more around the inevitable supply chain disruptions than around avoiding/treating the virus.

[Mariner]

Yeah, the newest China data shows slower spread than originally feared. Likely due to their draconian quarantines.

But the mortality rate shows higher than originally reported.