DouglasKC: Remember that 20% WILL require some type of medical intervention...i.e. severe symptoms requiring hospitalization or other medical intervention.
18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring hospitalization.
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ME:
What if say 3% need hospitalizations and others will need a doctor's visit/medications, some will ignore symptoms until they are ill enough to need an ER and are sent home with meds (in CA many undocumented go to the ER if they can't control symptoms), some will have complications from other illnesses, some may just have an ugly flu experience that causes them to tough it out at home with meds longer than usual.
18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring medical intervention. WHo knows how many of those 20% need prescriptions vs hospitalization? What percentages apply to severe flu years in the past?
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DouglasKC:
I didn't spell it out but addressed it by using a very low number of hospitalizations, 10%...or half of the generally agreed upon figure of 20% for severe symptoms. But even at 5% it's still way above capacity.
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ME:
According to the CDC, 2018 had the highest levels of flu in the past 10 years with
45,000,000 becoming ill.
21,000,000 going to the doctor.
810,000 requiring hospitalization which is 4% of those seeking medical intervention.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
The problem is in your original post here:
The reason why is simple. It's stated in almost every government pronouncement about this virus including the United States. It's contained in this sentence:
"For 80% of those who get this virus their symptoms will be mild and won't require hospitalization."
This statement is being incorrectly interpreted to mean everyone who doesn't have mild symptoms will be hospitalized when in the highest flu season in the past 10 years, 4% were hospitalized. It's important for people to avoid posting online that 20% will need hospitalization.
Given that there is deep interest in fanning fears in the MSM and actually in some medical places, this may be intentional on their part. We've seen them do it before; always shrieking that, " it's outta control! get the vaccine! DOOM! DOOM!"
There Is research that supports 12-20% severity of cases.
Here is one:
Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China
Summary of a Report of 72,314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Zunyou Wu, MD, PhD1; Jennifer M. McGoogan, PhD1
Author Affiliations Article Information
JAMA. Published online February 24, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.2648
“ Spectrum of disease (N=44415)
Mild: 81% (36,160 cases)
Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
Critical: 5% (2087 cases)”
Another study:
“the percentage of severe cases in all infected cases was 18.1%”
Clinical characteristics of 50466 patients with 2019-nCoV infection
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v2
Posted above by LilFarmer:
ITALY
1577 cases, 639 patients hospitalized with symptoms, 140 are in intensive care, while 798 are in home isolation.
I REALLY hope there is something wrong with those numbers.
Here is another... this is Dr. Fauci who is a member of Trump’s task force:
Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health told CNBC on Monday that a quarter of China’s coronavirus cases require intensive treatment.
“About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care,” said the director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
For starters this is not the flu so comparison like that is wortheless.
Second, 14.8 percent of patients SO FAR infected with this have developed ARDS (Acute Repiratory Distress Syndome)
Source: Clinical characteristics of 50466 patients with 2019-nCoV infection
That's 15% of all patients. That's 15% who FOR SURE would need to be hospitalized and treated...and even after that they have a markedly decreased quality of life...according to wikipedia.