[gas_dr]

I think there is fear mongers and everyone is going to die side of the curve and the other side of the curve that this is no big deal. In my judgment, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, but closer to this being blown out of proportion. Consider the following....1. We have known about this virus for now over 6 weeks. While there are hotspots, given the fat that it is likely shed and contagious before symptoms, the horse should have been well out of the barn by the time it was discovered. 2. If airborne and truly as deadly as the fear mongers say, there should be exponentially more cases throughout the world. 3. You can hide hotspots contained in countries with absolute control over the press, but you cannot contain it once out in the western countries. 4. If this were truly a plague, we should see the doubling time already calculated and have numerous models as to what is really happening.

I kind of think that there are probably a ton more infections than we see reported, but that like its cousins in the corona virus family is likely a self limited infection that goes away with symptomatic support. Think of the number of colds you get in a life time -- each one of those is a unique virus to your system, and yet you will likely say they all acted the same, fever, chills, sore throat, snotty nose...got better in 5 -7 days. Time will tell, but if this were the disaster that we think it is the evidence simply isn't there.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

I’ve read that the R0 for this WuFlu is at least 2.5, while R0 for the flu is between 1.1 and 1.5. So, yes, it’s at least a bit more contagious.

[calenel]

I am inclined to think this is somewhere in the middle, also. I think that we have managed to contain it by and large, but we will get flare ups periodically. Like S. Korea and Italy. As long as we are diligent about putting out brushfires we can likely avoid any major conflagrations.

But countries like China and Iran - clearly suppressing the true figures - are going to be a problem.

Containment is key. Don’t panic, but prepare and be vigilant.