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To: Paul R.

IDK. Haven’t seen it yet. And I think we should have if China is that much of a bottleneck.

There’s been a lot of advance towards other suppliers because of the “trade war”.
Maybe China still has that pull, maybe it doesn’t.


341 posted on 02/23/2020 10:20:42 PM PST by mrsmith (Dumb sluts (M / F) : Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat/RINO Party!)
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To: mrsmith

My experience (300+ employee company) was that particularly just after CNY, 60 days from shipment from China to actually putting parts on the production line was not unusual. Might be different for the big players, IDK. We allowed for it.

I guess the question right now might be: How is daily import activity at US ports?

Also, a lot of Chinese factories producing “simple” component parts are highly automated.* They might not be too affected until or if the maint. staff is needed and doesn’t show up — but it looks like now some regions are going back to work, virus or no. We’ll see how that holds up...

*We tend to think of these Chinese factories as populated with hordes of sweatshop employees working on dirt floors, but, truth is, some of those factories are nothing of the sort, and, damn impressive.

Anyway, I would expect supply chain problems to develop a bit more gradually & sporadically than some would think. April could be “interesting”. After that, warmer weather should help. A lot depends on whether the vendor countries just decide to work and accept their human losses. After all, staying shut down might cost more lives than the virus, eventually...


352 posted on 02/23/2020 11:02:25 PM PST by Paul R. (The Lib / Socialist goal: Total control of nothing left wort h controlling.)
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