10 February 2020 - Imperial College London
Report 4: Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV)
(Download Report 4)
Ilaria Dorigatti+, Lucy Okell+, Anne Cori, Natsuko Imai , Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Rich FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe , Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Nan Hong , Min Kwun, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Steven Riley, Sabine van Elsland, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Raymond Wang, Caroline Walters , Xiaoyue Xi, Christl Donnelly, Azra Ghani, Neil Ferguson*. With support from other volunteers from the MRC Centre.1
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
J-IDEA
Imperial College London
*Correspondence: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk 1 See full list at end of document. +These two authors contributed equally.
Summary Report 4
We present case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for three strata of 2019-nCoV infections. For cases detected in Hubei, we estimate the CFR to be 18% (95% credible interval: 11%-81%).
For cases detected in travellers outside mainland China, we obtain central estimates of the CFR in the range 1.2-5.6% depending on the statistical methods, with substantial uncertainty around these central values.
Using estimates of underlying infection prevalence in Wuhan at the end of January derived from testing of passengers on repatriation flights to Japan and Germany, we adjusted the estimates of CFR from either the early epidemic in Hubei Province, or from cases reported outside mainland China, to obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%). It is important to note that the differences in these estimates does not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries. CFRs seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases. All CFR estimates should be viewed cautiously at the current time as the sensitivity of surveillance of both deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear. Furthermore, all estimates rely on limited data on the typical time intervals from symptom onset to death or recovery which influences the CFR estimates.
Appendix data sources
Data on early deaths from mainland China: hubei_early_deaths_2020_07_02.csv
Data on cases in international travellers: international_cases_2020_08_02.csv
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-globa...n-coronavirus/
new video clips, at 2min in, doctor who says he was on a team of experts, now hospitalized on o2, after watching CCPTV is saying ‘as front line doctor, I have my own opinions it is true that this is the case, but some things are not necessarily the case.’ He goes on to say that his chances of CFR are 30% !! and the clip ends
China has some bright young people but the more we see, the more it looks like China is a third-world nation with glitter when it comes to public health emergencies:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCE7jMP8fQ4