ok, I finally found time to squeeze the numbers in the JAMA study, so here goes - critique away:
numbers from Zhonghan Univ Hospital, study period Jan 1-31. 138 patients, JAMA paper Feb 7.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?c
Did not require ICU and have not died: 102 = 74% but 85 remain hospitalized = 62%
Discharged by Feb 3: 47 = 34%; avg hosp stay 10 days
Remain hospitalized: 85 = 62%
Casualties: 6 (4.3%)(ICU deaths) (30-day period)
ICU admissions: 36 = 26%
ICU - Transferred out to general ward: 10 = 37%
ICU deaths: 6/36 = 17% (preexisting/shock/organ failure)
Overall mortality: 4.3% (ICU deaths) (hospital admitted mortality rate not total mortality rate)
To reach 600/day mortality from hospitals with the figures above, (138/6dead) could we multiply 138 x 100 for a patient load of 13,800 with 600 admitted each day to keep things static with the overall mortality still at 4.3% and a 17% mortality rate of the 26% admitted to ICU? Is this right? But we need to know how many hospitals the 600 is spread over because a daily patient load of 14K is a lot of beds and 600 new patients each day is a lot of daily admissions.
If we look at a 600/day mortality as a combination of untreated deaths at home and hospital deaths then can’t we also guestimate the number of infected overall, then number of seriously ill, and the number of untreated and the number of mild infected/recovered overall? And I accept that these numbers to start with are wonky because they are coming from CCP, but it’s a start?
According this young man, there were no extra screenings or instructions to self-quarantine at the LAX airport on Feb 6.
Flying in from Taiwan, previously in Hong Kong, previously in China, he was asked at departure in Taiwan if he had been in China in the last 14 days and on arrival at LAX if he had been in China in the last 30 days. He said nobody verified what he verbalized. His is not the first video posted about this topic; there was another one about a Chicago-bound traveler who was also has claimed there is nothing special said to them and nobody is taking temps or ‘enhanced screening’, and noone is telling them about a self-quarantine. That entry into the US was ‘anti-climatic’ compared to the checks they’d experienced on their routes here. This particular fellow intends to continue on to Mexico City from LA.
It would seem this is a critical issue that needs to be addressed tootsweet if we are to protect ourselves from citizens/residents who may try to play the system and inadvertently spread infection. Our BP/customs folks need to make it clear to entering passengers that they do need to self-quarantine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiL0l2pAFFI