” I don’t understand only 12 cases here. “
What saved us, at least so far, has been three things: most of the migration in early Jan would have been back to China or within asia for the annual holiday; the US taking quick action to first restrict then quarantine int’l travelers by Feb 4; and an incubation of 5-7 days to symptoms/pneumonia.
The Jan 29 March ARB quarantined folks should be clear by Feb 10 if you count the day at the airport before they left and flight time into their total. From touchdown, tho, it’s Feb 12, so early this week.
If I’m thinking this right, we go from from traveler-origin high-risk to low risk about Feb 13, if everyone who arrived via aircraft between Jan 28 and Feb 3 remains virus free. Leaving the risk limited to the few person-to-person contacts of the existing 12-current-patients. Maybe we’ll be breathing easier, in the USA at least, by Feb 14?
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13 Jan - First case in Thailand. With 7 day inoculation, he would have been infected about Jan 8. Anyone he infected by the 13th would show symptoms by the 20th. 14-days clear from Jan 8, would have been Jan 27 - after lockdown in Wuhan and well after the US began enhanced screening.
15 Jan - first case Japan - would have been infected about Jan 9th. Anyone he infected before the 15th would have shown symptoms by the 22nd. Those who stayed uninfected would be clear abt Jan 29.
17 Jan - US enhanced screening at 3 major pop center airports
21 Jan - First US case. Would have been infected approx. seven days prior. Anyone he infected by the 15th would show symptoms by Jan 22. Those who stayed unexposed from Jan 15 should be clear by Jan 29.
Jan 22 - US announces enhanced screening. Anyone infected by those passengers would show symptoms by Jan 29. Those who remained unexposed on Jan 22 would be clear by Feb 4.
23 Jan - Wuhan lockdown - Those still without symptoms would be clear by Feb 5 but too late to beat the US Feb 4 closeout
Jan 28 - US flights redirected to 11 specific airports. Those still without symptoms at airport screening on that date would be clear by Feb 12. And any exposed on that date would show symptoms by Feb 4.
Feb 4th - US flights restricted - quarantine of travelers in place. These last minute folks would show symptoms by Feb 12, without symptoms would be clear by Feb 19.
Good timeline, thank you. It can be as much as 14 days from infection to symptoms.
We’ve just past the 14 day mark for foreign college students coming back to the US so that’s good.