The (Chinese ancestry) author of “The Coming Collapse of China” was on Fox News last night. He has a lot of personal contacts within China right now.
He said based on the chaos and mishandling of this epidemic in its early stages, he doesn’t expect this epidemic to end in China before April or May. I hope he’s wrong.
Gordon Chang?
He’s got a good twitter feed.
Also Solomon Yue.
The Lancet also published a study which forcasted the infections in Wuhan will peak in April. From videos I have seen, there is no one on the streets, so they might be enough of a response to cut that short.
The docs in Hong Kong did modelling on it a couple of weeks ago. I wish the video showed the graphs they were referring too. They estimated that Wuhan would peak the end of March. Then the next nearest city would peak 2 weeks later, and so on as it spread.
They also were very concerned about a world pandemic, and suggested “draconian measures” to stop it’s spread.
The five cities they were worried about (and now have it, and many more) - they said that 70% of Chinese travel to non-asian countries goes through those cities.