[Ancesthntr]

“You calculate the number who have completed the cycle dead to recovered not number of infected to dead. That number is nowhere near 2.145% and lets you know why the we have quarantines going on.”

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Exactly. This disease (like most) takes a while to kill you if it is going to do so. First they get the virus and its symptoms then, after several days to as long as 10 or so days, they get a real bad case of pneumonia - and after a few days or longer, THAT kills you. So to calculate a mortality rate by looking at the number of dead TODAY vs. the number of patients today (most of whom have only had symptoms of the disease for a few days or a week, is a logical absurdity.

Let’s see figures that compare the number of infected on, say, January 7 with the number of THOSE SAME EXACT PEOPLE who have died since then. Regretfully, the mortality rate is likely to be upwards of 15%, perhaps as high as 25% - because the Chinese are NOT reporting a large number of people “recovered” (in fact, from what I have seen, the number of dead exceeds the number recovered).

This is a BIG deal. It is HIGHLY communicable (about twice as much as the flu, and that regularly hits 10% - 15% of the population even with mass innoculations), and its mortality rate is - AT BEST - 20 times as high (2.0% vs. 0.1%). More realistically, this thing and its complications are lethal to at least 10%, making it 100 times worse than the flu, multiplied by twice the number likely to get the thing. Oh, and here is what a very quick Google search showed:

“In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died.”

OK, do the math - 61,000 people died from influenza last year, and if this thing is 20 times worse then we will lose 1.2 MILLION dead. If it is 100 times worse, over 6 MILLION will die. And that is if only the same number get infected - what if that is a higher number due to its easy communicablity?

[Lady Heron]

It keeps being posted that way to keep people from panicking but people need to at least think about what it would take if you had to get your family through a quarantine. The have barred the doors to apartments and apartment complexes so people cannot leave. The problem is that in China you go buy your food for that day and do not have long term food on hand. They have locked them up to starve in many cases.

[GulfMan]

Interesting, if 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died that puts our rate at 10% of people in that go to the hospital for the flu die, much higher than I thought, of course, it’s much lower for the rate they use which is percentage of people that have it (a guess) divided by those that died.