Blink and you miss it: The U.S. yield curve inverts again (Historically, an indicator of looming recession)

Reuters ^ | 01/29/2020 | Karen Brettell, Ira Iosebashvili

[Phil DiBasquette]

That tears it, we can’t afford to support
illegals so stop their handouts
and keep their remittance $ in our economy too

[DJ Frisat]

”A closely watched bond market phenomenon has again flashed yellow, but investors are loathe to give it much weight.”

Well, ‘Rooters’ may know finance and investing, but this lowly public school graduate knows the correct form of the word to use in this sentence.

Hard to you seriously when you don’t know your verbs from your adjectives...

[Bedford Forrest]

Hard to you seriously when you don’t know your verbs from your adjectives...

But in the beady brain of any mainslime media fake, the thought of anything related to the President, such as his economic successes, triggers an immediate Palovian attack of fear and loathing, subliminally present in 85% of the cases.

[guitar Josh]

I've looked back and I think the 1 -30 spread is important as well, as it has never had a false positive. 1 - 10 has had false positives in 1966 and 1998. What's important is what the Fed does after an inversion. If they cut rates as they did in 1967, 1984 when they 30 year was between the 1 & 2 year, 1995 and 1998, we'll be okay. When they continue to hike as they did in 1969, 1973, 1979, 1981, 1989, 2000 & 2006, we'll have a recession.

The good news is that housing is peaking, and it usually has a cycle peak around 2.5 - 3 year prior to the onset of a recession.

[Kid Shelleen]

Isn't high tech a leading economic indicator?
Intel, Microsoft, Apple, AMD just reported fantastic earnings and positive guidance going forward.

[MNJohnnie]

Trump should play them on it.

“Well looks like it time for Taxcut 2.0 as we been saying to kick the economy back into high gear”.

[Tucker39]

The thought just went through my beady little mind; Whether between the Fed jiggling interest rates, and Wall Street messing with financial details, the two of them can trigger a recession anytime they want one? And the “yield reversal” is just one of the knobs they jiggle to make it happen. Honest question.

[justme4now]

[stylin19a]

It inverted a bunch of times in 2019. There’s no specific benchmark.
It’s where any Treasury note of shorter duration pays more interest than a longer note.

see here: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2020

[Crucial]

it Looks to me like the Fed is having trouble keeping the pump primed. They raised their interest rate target and they keep pumping money into the economy and that decreases the value of the dollar. We have an enormous debt bubble and it looks to me like our economic growth is a little too tepid to keep pace with the adverse effects if spending.

[nicollo]

Recessions may be preceded by an inverted yield curve, but few inverted yield curves are followed by a recession.