Posted on 01/27/2020 4:20:36 PM PST by 11th_VA
Steve’s the man !!!
China’s Statistics for this morning are late - May be release 8 PM EST
(Excerpt) Read more at m.youtube.com ...
Bkmk
My guess is a week to 10 days old. Too many politicians have to approve, medical local, political local, province, then country.
If I stop posting, you’ll know it got me.
I sure hope these predictions are wrong! Wow, that’s some jump in a month.
Did you create that or got from another source? If you did run it yourself, is there a way to use the same model but start the model with the same number of cases and deaths on Jan 22? Real vs model). Since they dont start at same number it is hard to compare.
If Trump thinks the Cdc or WHO are in control .
We are in trouble .
The Cdc demanded the hospital send the sample to test .
Hospital lost valuable time .
They just come allowed this .
The Cdc are fed employees and mostly libs .
Trumps delay and playing coy is now looking bad .
He needs to get ahold of this now. It’s not on the general population’s radar yet. One Kobe wears off, it will be.
Got it from 4chan a few days back. The poster said:
“Monte Carlo simulation based off of 10 day incubation period and 2.5% mortality and 50 interactions over 10 days with new hosts”
He needs to get ahold of this now. It’s not on the general population’s radar yet. One Kobe wears off, it will be.
—
lookner pointed out no one in the national media is running with the new numbers yet
Bookmark
OMG...how r u feeling now? Better, I hope.
“For comparison, Right now we just hit 50% of the total number SARS cases.”
...and at +40% daily, as it has been, that means we hit the SARS level in 2 days and double it in 4 days.
I wonder what the reason is for the anomaly that occurs on Feb. 15 from the day before?
Very interesting table. I find myself forgetting we are talking about real people and just getting involved in the story of it all.
The “recoveries” numbers are going to lag a lot. Secondary issues can take weeks if not occasionally months to resolve.
OTOH, the low recoveries number may mean that there are a LOT of patients with secondary problems, which of course eat up resources and may eventually contribute to even more deaths.
The scarier number for me are the critical cases. Once those overwhelm the care facilities, deaths are going to ramp up a lot faster than what we are seeing now, I’m afraid.
Seems to be consistent with the doubling. The only variable missing is the viral “die off.” A ball doesn’t stay in the air forever or go into the stratosphere.
Hubei province .. cases .. deaths …. Status
(including Wuhan) 2,714 . 100 .. 563 serious, 127 critical
“I worry about it getting into India.”
1 case Nepal, 1 case SriLanka
It’s not doubling from day to day until Feb 15th when it more than doubles from Feb 14th.
“If this hold true .
Trump will not be re-elected.”
He’ll be impeached on a new charge associated with dereliction of duty and removed from office.
He better have his best man set up a conference call with HHS and CDC and let them know what is expected of them, Pronto. And fire a dozen to make his point.
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