You’re probably right. A lot depends on GOTV, and fraud.
I did work for Hilary Primary 2008 campaign. Actually, I got sucked in, then I realized the best place to learn how the election works. I was doing technical/statistical work. I was able to get into daily late-night conference calls with Clintons.
They pay all inner-city managers for full voting in advance. Obama was able to win because all the majority of inner-city Managers were black.
They have some address which delivers 70-80 votes per address. Basically all dead and hospice are counted.
Union leader gets paid to deliver votes. Whoever had money and Union leaders get elected.
Polls are a joke, Super delegates Dianne is most important. She had picked Biden. She will deliver Biden.