Juan has joined the crazies...
A few years ago he was at lest half way normal..
Juan forgets some key things.
1) Obama is LAZY. He has little incentive to walk away from a life of leisure on beaches and golf courses, sucking down beer and cheeseburgers.
2) Obama is NOT necessarily that popular with black voters. I think a lot of them are secretly embarrassed by the fact that his administration was largely a failure.
3) Obama is a sniveling Beta Male which is NOT the sort of thing that resonates with your typical black male voter.
4) Obama does NOT want to be in the spotlight at a time when increasing numbers of questions are going to be asked about his participation in the coup.
Nah. He curls up on a beach someplace and keeps his head down.
Always a crazy. He turned me off FNC many years ago.
He’s not in the crazy’s for questioning folks claiming Trump is going to get 30% of the black vote.. because I hate to break this to you.. that ain’t happening.
Trump will do better in 20, than he did in 16, but he’s not getting 30% of the black vote... hell he’s not get 20% of it.. .He’ll get in the upper range of a typical Republican in 2020.
These people looking at internals of polls and seeing 30% support among blacks polled, don’t remotely understand statistics or polling.
These numbers are broken down by race, as part of a larger poll. The larger poll may ask 1000 people,, but of that 1000 people 60 just happened to be black. Trump getting 20 of them does not mean Trump remotely has 30% support among the black population. The sample size is too small, the margin of error too large.
For Trump to get 20% or more of the black vote would require a TITANIC SHIFT OF THE BLACK ELECTORATE ON THE GROUND.... this would be visible to anyone paying attention, you wouldn’t need a poll to notice it... GOP support among blacks tends in and around 10% in Presidential elections... in 16, Trump got 8%... I expect he will do better in 2020 but he’s not going to get anywhere near 20%.
If Trump were remotely on the brink of pulling 20% of the black vote, the left would be going absolutely ape poop.. .because if the GOP can get 20% of the black vote, no Democrat will ever win the White House again.
You wouldn’t need to see a poll, you would see it on the ground, you would see it in the fear in the democrats eyes...
This ain’t happening folks. I do believe Blacks turnout will almost certainly be down in the 2020 cycle, the clown car of Democrat candidates are not anything that is going to excite them, and Trump will almost certainly outperform his 8% in 2016, but its not going to be 30%.. hell its not going to be 20%... it will be in the 10-12% range most likely. Which is a solid improvement over 16, but its not politically seismic.
Folks need to settle down. Blacks are today, kind of where the blue dog democrats were a while ago. They may not like their party ,but they aren’t going to vote the other way in any major way yet... They will disengage.... For them to come out to vote for the GOP they need to finally come to a full realization their party is not serving them, AND that the other side is giving them a reason to vote for them.
For the average black voter, that is not where they are... Some of them are in the early stages of realizing the Dems may not be serving them. but most are not there, and certainly most are not in a place where they are ready to vote against their traditional party... They will sit out in larger numbers first... and then and only then when someone gives them a strong reason to finally cross the rubicon they will.
That’s not where things are yet... If they were, believe me, you’d be hearing about black vote being in jeopardy from folks on the ground, not from sliced and diced internals of far too small of a sample from polling.