While many are focused on Republican defections, Doug Jones (D-AL) has to be a certain “no” vote, and I would suspect that Manchin (D-WV) would also have to be a no vote. Sienma in AZ would also be one to watch for a no vote. Interesting that there is very little discussion about the pressure on these three Dems in case of a trial.
I think you are 100% right about Manchin. He wants to be governor of WV again. Good chance for Jones too, unless he comes to the conclusion that there is zero chance of winning reelection. And for what it is worth I think there is very little chance of Mittens voting to convict. The simple reason is that he has no guts. He would only vote to convict if the other votes were there. And forget the Dems having him. If he is to ever have a chance to become prez he will have to stand with the GOP. He will make all kinds of noise about being fair and deploring some of the ways that President Trumps acts but will, in the end, vote to acquit.
I am so sorry I ever voted for Mittens.
Doug Jones (D-AL) has to be a certain no vote
No doubt about that if he has any hope of keeping his seat. It will depend om his internals. If he is convinced he has a chance to keep his seat then he is a no. The Rats want a bipartisan majority to convict in the worse way to use as a club throughout the 20 campaign. If Jones threatens that he better get his family into witness protection. Manchin is one to watch. He did the right thing with Kavenaugh so it’s hard to say with him too. Sienma is just out there and who knows.