Pretty safe bet!
That kind of work almost never gets considered for a Nobel because its all mathematical not experimental physics. Nobel Prizes end to bias toward experimental-oriented fields. (oh yeah? - Explain why the Nobel prizes for Economics! - I can’t!)
There is no such thing as a Nobel for Economics. It was a prize that was added on by the Swedish Central Bank.
Planck didn’t win his until 1918 (paper was 1900). Einstein put Planck on the map. Planck was derided at the time as a mathematical huckster.
Einsenberg straightened Einstein’s math out. Math matters, and the folks on the Nobel committee don’t have much of a sense of history I guess.