[Jack Black]

There is a difference between polling and predicting. Obviously the predictors use the polls, but they may use other factors as well.

Here is a nice site that rounds most of the major orgs that were in the prediction game in 2016. Here are their categories and call outs:

Aggregated Maps: Poll-Based | Poll-Based (no toss-ups) | Consensus
Statistical Models: FiveThirtyEight | Princeton | PredictWise | NYT Upshot
Full-time Analysts: Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Cook Political | Rothenberg & Gonzales
Media Analysis: ABC | AP | CNN | FOX | NBC | NPR | The Fix | Governing

[rb22982]

You are correct but someone at 4% and dropping would not have a high probability in any forecast at this point