Replies

This artist's concept shows what the TRAPPIST-1 planetary system may look like, based on available data about the planets' diameters, masses and distances from the host star, as of February 2018. 3 of the 7 exoplanets are in the 'habitable zone', where liquid water is possible.

Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

The Fermi paradox is the conflict between an expectation of a high {\em ex ante} probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and the apparently lifeless universe we in fact observe. The expectation that the universe should be teeming with intelligent life is linked to models like the Drake equation, which suggest that even if the probability of intelligent life developing at a given site is small, the sheer multitude of possible sites should nonetheless yield a large number of potentially observable civilizations. We show that this conflict arises from the use of Drake-like equations, which implicitly assume certainty regarding highly uncertain parameters. We examine these parameters, incorporating models of chemical and genetic transitions on paths to the origin of life, and show that extant scientific knowledge corresponds to uncertainties that span multiple orders of magnitude. This makes a stark difference. When the model is recast to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a substantial {\em ex ante} probability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe, and thus that there should be little surprise when we fail to detect any signs of it. This result dissolves the Fermi paradox, and in doing so removes any need to invoke speculative mechanisms by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects upon the universe. : Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

Pure nose picking. There’s not an ounce of factual data used in this completely fantastical, created from whole-cloth "study" that could and should have been published as "science" fiction. The authors even admit that we do NOT HAVE instruments capable of showing anything which allows them to make their headline hyping claims.

They stuck a finger up their collective nostrils and pulled out a bugger and examined it closely and yelled "Eureka! DATA!"

But, it’s still a bugger. . . and worth nothing more despite all their posturing and claims!

Scientists up to and including Carl Sagan were certain that Venus had huge oceans and lots of greenery on islands as well with a surface temperature of about 140° F at the equator, with an atmospheric pressure similar to Earth, and roundly criticized Velikovsky in the 1950s for claiming it had a surface temperature almost 900° F and an atmosphere pressure of 90 times Earth’s.

Those scientists were examining their buggers too. They were shocked when they actually got instruments there and measured the conditions on Venus. Average surface temperature is 864° F and pressure at 89 Bar. Although they never admitted it, Velikovsky nailed it in every thing he said they’d find. . . 25 years before they launched the probe. So, before we look, it’s nose picking. I guess Velikovsky must have had better buggers.

Until they put a democrat on them.