THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY TODAY:
* American consumers, responsible for two-thirds of the economy, remain upbeat, and they are spending. If that sector remains strong, we will continue to grow.
* The economic slowdown making headlines is in Europe and China, not the USA.
* China’s economy is hurting. The most recent sign of a slowdown is that industrial production rose only 4.8 percent in July, the slowest rate in 17 years and down from 6.3 percent in June. Retail sales in July also came in weaker than expected in July, up only 7.6 percent, down from 9.8 percent in June. THOSE ARE CHINA’s REPORTED FIGURES ( if you can trust them ).
* Exports make up only about 12 percent of U.S. GDP; moderate weakness should not lead us into recession.
* The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that in July, its Small Business Optimism Index bounced up 1.4 points to 104.7. Maybe more reassuring, the group’s “Uncertainty Index” dropped, reversing a surge in June. Also, the group reported that “Small business owners’ plans to create new jobs and make capital outlays advanced and earnings trends improved, supported by a solid improvement in sales trends. Plans to order new inventories posted a solid gain.”
* Consumer sentiment has also remained robust. That’s because jobs are plentiful and wages are rising.
* Because interest rates in much of the world have turned negative, the U.S. is attracting floods of money from investors worldwide seeking returns.
* That influx has driven bond prices higher and our rates down, and briefly caused what is called an “inversion,” in which the rate on a 10-year or 30-year bond is lower than the rate on a 2-year instrument. That is unusual, since investors normally demand higher rates in return for committing their money for a longer period of time, but it is not unprecedented.
* Bottom line: it’s too early to say the inversion guarantees a recession.
* Ultimately, the stock market will trade higher or lower with corporate earnings, which depend on overall economic activity.
Expect collusion between dems and the fed, the entire news media and a gaggle of billionaires for an all out kitchen sink assault and sabotage of the US economy. We will now hear about the recession every day.
I suspect the huge investors, like hedge funds, actually can caused these ups and downs and make serious profits doing that.
After all, it’s hard to call for a revolution if the people are happy.
That’s the last thing the left wants they need the one tool that’s worked for them to win misery.
Such a unhinged lot.
Brick and mortar retail, JCPenney, Macy’s and malls are on their last breath now. Imagine all the lost jobs in just those three entities. I do see an economic collapse in our near future and it may be worse than the depression. Our economy has turned up-side-down and I’m not sure anyone can know how it progresses.
The late Dr. Charles Krauthammer astutely observed on the day after Trump’s election that “the American people have made the decision to live with a less efficient economy in exchange for social peace”.
And indeed, we had.
After three decades of free trade policies whereby Wall Street was given absolutely everything it wanted on a silver platter (while Flint, Youngstown, Rockford and eventually wide swaths of the South suffered the consequences) America ended the test drive, handed the keys back and said “No Sale!”
When the end came to their gravy train you knew Wall Street would have its hissy fit. Relax. Eventually they will adjust to the new realities.
One of neighbor’s relatives just spent $80,000 for a pick-up truck.
Most people can’t pay that amount.
Retail workers see the malls dying. They know their days are numbered and are saving every dollar they can.
US citizen construction workers see that legal & illegal Latin Americans are taking over construction, so no unnecessary purchases for most US citizen construction workers.
Many people thought Trump would bring back industrial jobs, but Trump has mainly failed in that endeavor, so back to really tight spending.
The stock market has probably hit a peak, which won’t be surpassed for many years, so the spending that accompanies stock market booms is vanishing.
People living off savings are hearing the Federal Reserve wants to cut interest rates, so people living off savings are cutting back.
I’m cutting my spending because my money is running low and I want to delay taking Social Security as long as possible to avoid the ~8% cut for each year it’s taken before age 70.
People are also cutting back on travel to reduce their CO2 footprint.
“the middle class insists on streaming into Walmart”
And as they stream out, they see that most cashiers have been replaced by technology and ask themselves, will my job exist in five years.
During Obama’s term, the media crowed about what a great economy we were living in.
The uni media is on the side of the Marxists.
The left wants a recession. They want it so as to destroy Trump. There was a very minor price difference in short term and longer term interest rates, which was blown out of proportion.
The local communist tv station showed us the usual stock pictures of stock traders looking up at a screen with a shocked, pained face. The message is that Trump is causing disaster. Complete lie. Those are stock pictures. The overpaid fatcows could have been looking at the numbers during bammy’s reign.
Let us not let the left-wing media talk us into a recession. Make no mistake: they are eager to do so.
For months the liberal press has echoed Democrats’ hand-wringing on the campaign trail, repeating Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s unwarranted warnings about debt levels for instance, or former Vice President Joe Biden’s alarms about how President Trump’s trade confrontation with China is hurting consumers.
After all, it’s hard to call for a revolution if the people are happy.
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heads up.
Liz (FBN) has a good take
Lib’s today: “People working jobs and engaging in commerce isn’t the economy, the stock market is. “
Of course its not falling, but they have to try to talk up the fear and hope for a recession to have any hope of a D win next fall, so they will be talking down the economy at any opportunity.
US economy has been in the crapper for nearly 2 decades... Trump finally started getting the governors and other things off it... You aren’t making up 2 decades of anemic growth in 3 years... we aren’t near a recession.
Will there be another one? Of course there will, but there is a LOT more stalled growth to be recognized, before we get there.
People won’t believe the lie - sad that lying is all the Dems have to campaign on, that and hate. Not a winning combination.