Leave it to the sportswriters to look for weird angles. It’s a story that the U.S. won’t try to “dodge France?” If the U.S. wants to win the tournament, we have to play France sooner or later. I’d rather play France in a quarterfinal than in the championship game, with France playing at home.
Once in the knockout stages, most of the games will be decided by one goal, and several by penalties. These will be peer level teams, each of them fully capable, on any given day, of beating anyone in the field.
The U.S. will be a slight favorite in most games, but when a single shot, a ball off the crossbar, a penalty, or a great save can make the difference, that doesn’t mean much. The U.S. edge against the other top teams is mostly consistency and depth. But on any given day, flip a coin.
I do think the U.S. probably has more scoring threats than most of the other top teams, maybe more than anyone else in the field. The most important thing about the 13-0 blowout vs. Thailand is that seven different players scored. And Tobin Heath and Julie Ertz, both dangerous, DIDN’T score. A lot of opponents will try to bunker in, mark Alex Morgan and slow the game. The trick for the U.S. will be to make them pay a price. Morgan has become a very effective playmaker. She’s always marked and often doubled. She’s effective as a decoy, creating space for the other players and laying the ball off to the wingers and attacking midfielders. If the U.S. wins the tournament, that’s how they’ll do it.