I think China is in a bad spot on a whole host of issues right now and rare earth minerals is not all that high on the list. We have them, we just don’t mine them because we can get them more cheaply and not worry about environmental regulations from China. If they cut us off, it will immediately be profitable and worthwhile to mine our own here in the US and China loses market share.
The one wildcard few are talking about just so happens to be hosting the big man right now.
Japan is increasing their defense spending and is seriously considering becoming a nuclear power - something Trump would NOT oppose. The public reason for this is that China cannot control their little puppet with a bad hair cut. However, this movement towards militarization is also an acknowledgement of China’s long-term goals in the region.
Out of all the problems for China - this might be at the top of the list and it does the most damage to their long-term plans because Japan is a powerful nation in their own right and their history with China is well known. Think Trump does not know this? Our media don’t, but consider where he is visiting right now.......
I think, at the end of the day, all China has is sabre rattling. Xi has his tit in a wringer and he knows it. That’s why he had his stooges bail on the trade talks. His hold on power is tenuous, and he knows that too many concessions to the US on trade ( which is their master plan to cheat and steal their way to being #1 in the world) an he’s out.