Is there really much difference between “highly probable” and “likely”?

Maybe. Possibly.
Do they actually still commit mentally ill people?
Seems like the truly mentally ill are overlooked, in the haste to capture and isolate from society the merely grouchy and crotchety curmudgeons, considered to be “mentally ill” by the Progressive attitudes of so many in authority. The truly mentally ill are allowed to take to the streets and live off handouts, as “homeless” people.